PM Receipts @TheStackOS

No one sets out to destroy themselves, or society. They just get there with reasonable iterative steps along their incentive surface. Enron, Jerome Kerviel, TikTok, SBF, Kalshi, Anthro. You can probably add Purdue Pharma, 737MAX, electoral college politics, publish-or-perish.

its actually disgusting how there will be a Bet365 watermark over this video till the end of time

Baseball Is Dead @baseballisdead_

4 days ago

The perfect ending for Justin Verlander. His daughter runs out to the mound and he walks off with his family. Feels like a movie.

926 6K 57K 5.7M 5K

It is embarrassing that Polymarket, the "global truth machine", posts verifiably false information on a near daily basis. @shayne_coplan - come get your intern.

The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate @Kalshi sports-related event contracts under their gambling laws. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine issued this state: “I am pleased that the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals has upheld the legality of Ohio and Tennessee’s efforts to assert our states’ gambling laws jurisdiction over Kalshi for sports betting products." opn.ca6.uscourts.gov/opinions/opini… @axios

@robbieklages @Kalshi The ‘America will lose its edge’ argument is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Strip away the patriotic packaging and it sounds much simpler: Kalshi doesn’t want 50 states to scrutinize what it’s selling. Regulatory capture by CFTC

I keep coming back to this article. It explains why prediction markets became dystopian sports gambling websites despite being pretty good truth engines for elections and wars. Easily the best essay of the year on this topic.

nic carter @nic_carter

7 months ago

x.com/i/article/2025…

24 8 178 27K 195

surprising me to see big accounts become shills and sell out their audiences for relatively small amounts of money — $5k, $10k, and such. $5 million, I can understand, but becoming a shill for a crypto or gambling company for $5k is crazy to me.

6th Circuit observes that if Kalshi's definition of a swap holds, then *every time* you place a bet outside the contact of a DCM, you are committing a crime. "Kalshi’s proposed 'interpretation of the statute would' also 'attach criminal penalties to a breathtaking amount of commonplace [gambling] activity.' ... as the States note, 'if sports bets are swaps, they must take place on federal markets.' ... That would include 'every sports wager placed in a casino, on an online sports book, or between two friends at a bar.' And it would also include 'sports wagers ostensibly permitted by PASPA.' Indeed, Kalshi’s overbroad swap definition would likely cover all sorts of commonplace gambling activity that does not currently occur on federally regulated exchanges. It 'would likely encompass virtually every kind of wager that could exist, including classic casino games and charity raffles.'"

Eric W. @EWess92

5 days ago

Huge win for @OhioAG & @AGTennessee against @Kalshi: the unanimous panel holds that sports-event contracts are not "swaps" and so there is not exclusive @CFTC jurisdiction per Judge Gibbons. This deepens the split with the Third Circuit. Supreme Court will be the next stop.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

3 17 102 31K 11

@billsperos I wouldn’t expect to see any lawsuits anytime soon. @grok how much have Jeff Yass & Kalshi donated to @AGJamesUthmeier & @ByronDonalds?

Nice scoop here with @kjspeakstruth: Polymarket's bets on individual bank failures are raising eyebrows in DC. Some worry these markets could grow & fuel a real-world bank run. FDIC officials also wondered if internal ethics rules strong enuf. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@SPSchropp Apparently the 6th Circuit forgot to run the opinion by Paradigm portfolio support first. Shockingly, though, many people believe it. x.com/wallachlegal/s…

Daniel Wallach @WALLACHLEGAL

5 days ago

Kalshi has now lost 15 consecutive federal court rulings since the Minnesota decision. With today’s reversal of Tennessee, States have prevailed in 38 out of 43 court decisions involving preliminary injunctions, TROs, or stays/injunctions pending appeal, an 88% success rate.

10 26 102 14K 29

Kalshi’s “wisdom of the crowds” sure looks like a group chat with marching orders. Same post. Same talking points. Some are properly labeled “Paid partnership,” while others have no visible disclosure. @XCreators Amazing how everyone’s “independent research” led to the same marketing brief.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

President Trump promised to drain the swamp and instead we’ve seen a category 5 corruption supercell. My five ways to power wash Washington’s culture of corruption across all three branches of government: 1. Ban all stock trading. 2. Ban all participation in prediction markets. 3. Mandatory retirement at 75 years old. 4. Mandatory blind trust for individuals with a net worth more than $1 million. 5. The Jared Kushner Ban: No foreign gifts to public officials, including foreign investments in their businesses or other entities. And yes, the ban stays in place for a period of at least two years after officials leave their job.

@dividendology “Gambling is designed to reward the house” — and prediction market order books are designed to extract exchange fees, spread, and liquidity-provider off of retail users. It's the same house, just wearing a VC fleece vest.

@Jack_Raines Exactly. They’d get half the hate if they just owned it instead of pretending their audience can't tell it's a distinction without a difference.

“It is difficult to imagine that Congress intended the CFTC to exclusively regulate whether sports-event contracts could be on DCMs, when those contracts did not even exist at the time.” (See Murphy v. NCAA)

@DustinGouker Reminds me of when they hired Antonio Brown to post negatively about Polymarket

@sriramkri Shame on everyone working to turn people’s lives into casinos — then — > hiding behind “prediction market” term > hiring presidents son to avoid regulations > conning young adults into converting their paychecks, into VC returns & early employee millionaire cashouts

in the coming years were all gonna be looking at kalshi and polymarket the same way we looked at juul and the people involved will be rushing to hide their involvement in the company

Citadel sent its Deputy U.S. Head of Government and Regulatory Policy to the CFTC last week to discuss the agency's rulemaking on affiliated market makers.