Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad
Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd. polyguana.com Joined April 2024-
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@_TraderBoi @CFTC It's a big part of it
Kalshi is cancelling their volume faking program they just filed this motion to the @CFTC indicating that they were terminating their "Volume incentive programme" (a.k.a sponsored wash trading). Looks like they are trying to backpedal quietly now that they got exposed. wise move imo they have a Supreme Court case coming against 8 states that wants them dead so better not give them amo with extra fraud Expect Kalshi's nominal volume to drop markedly
We just found how kalshi is faking their volume ! turns out Kalshi in-house market markers pay ZERO (0) fees when trading against themselves takers fees : 0.003% makers rebates : +0.003% cost of wash trading : 0.003 - 0.003 = 0 Crucially this applies only to "self-clearing
@gabagool22 @CFTC it's good for IPO
@kayvz @mignano ZEIT shipped the concept earlier. @ZEITFinance pioneered the concept with its Worldview generator. Same principle: Write down your thesis -> get a prediction-market-backed portfolio. app.zeit.finance/worldview
@uninsightful @Supertake That hard step is already solved. @ZEITFinance pioneered the concept with its Worldview generator. Same principle: Write down your thesis -> get a prediction-market-backed portfolio. app.zeit.finance/worldview
@archaicmf @CFTC they are running for the hills
@thatdataguy14 @CFTC they have a thousand ways of faking volume i'm sure. Thanks for the alpha
@shortsqueeznews Backlash from whom ?
@AndrewCurran_ Interesting. Some are already experimenting with that. @ZEITFinance has a product like that where you write down a thesis and it generates you a portfolio backed by prediction markets
@DustinGouker They might as well close shop
@salmanso_ @VictorRocha1 you really hit a nerve
@JayaGup10 bro you should check out @ZEITFinance. They built this already except backed by prediction markets app.zeit.finance/worldview
@spenciefy Worldview already handles that take. @ZEITFinance pioneered the concept with its Worldview generator. Same principle: Write down your thesis -> get a prediction-market-backed portfolio. app.zeit.finance/worldview
@vaibhavbetter The earlier version is already live. @ZEITFinance pioneered the concept with its Worldview generator. Same principle: Write down your thesis -> get a prediction-market-backed portfolio. app.zeit.finance/worldview
@Vlad_Web3 Retail may be left behind though. What stake do they have?
@VictorRocha1 Is your aim to ban Kalshi from selling only sports contracts or go after other categories too ?
@probabilitygod Tbh if we keep it real the case for Kalshi not being sports gambling is very weak
Kalshi just LOST another major case and appealed to the Supreme court the coming ruling will decide the future of the entire Prediction Market industry an alliance of 8 different states have tried to ban Kalshi and so far won every appeal : 3rd Circuit: Kalshi wins ✅ -> state appeals 9th Circuit: Kalshi loses ❌-> Kalshi appeals 6th Circuit: Kalshi loses again❌ -> Kalshi appeals to Supreme Court --- we are here --- Supreme court : [to be determined] the fundamental question is the same as for the Polymarket vs NY case "Are prediction markets gambling or finance ?" the States allege that Kalshi is a sports gambling platform and should thus be subject to states gambling laws Kalshi pretends that they are a financial derivative platform and should thus be regulated by the CFTC if the supreme court rules against Kalshi, it's the end for regulated Prediction Markets as the precedent would apply everywhere. right now PMs are considered derivatives : CFTC regulation = one federal license = access to all 50 states if they get classified as gambling : state regulation = one license *per state* + 50 different set of rules so whatever you think of Kalshi, I hope they win that case. You can blame them and Polymarket for leaning too much into sports and predictably attracting regulations, sure, but in the end the legit usecases of PMs would suffer too if they lost I hope the majority Trump appointed Supreme Court doesn't disappoint
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