Practical Options Speculation @Practical_Opt

Siltronic $WAF earnings terrible, P/E is negative, just before fixed operating leverage kicks back in. Best times cyclical semi stocks is when earnings drop & the multiple expands. „GlobalWafers, SUMCO & Shin-Etsu: Siltronic trading at 1.3x vs group avg of 3.7x, a 51% discount.“

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Practical Options Speculation @Practical_Opt

2 months ago

Siltronic $WAF „We expect the silicon wafer industry to enter its tightest supply period since the 2017-18 upturn, where pricing increased c50% over the two years. 2027-28 EBITDA numbers 20-40% above consensus.“ Industry supply-demand tightening for the first time in five years.

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OpenAI IPO will not happen in 2026 amid AI safety fears, Altman says reut.rs/4xnexIG reut.rs/4xnexIG

JUST IN: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman backs Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's call for the AI industry to slow down development.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said that the AI industry must slow the pace of development for new models, citing growing concerns about the “serious” risks to humans. Read more: bloom.bg/4xUgA8k 📷: Jason Henry/Bloomberg

We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must-p…

Victrex $VCT shares are up +50% ytd. FY 2026 Guidance upgrade. „Since our Q3 trading update on 7 July 2026, strong momentum has continued into Q4, with year-on-year growth across our end markets driven by Aerospace, Value Added Resellers and Electronics.„ CMD 24 September London.

Practical Options Speculation @Practical_Opt

2 months ago

Victrex $VCT specialty chemicals: „Q3 maintained the positive momentum we saw through our Q2. Compared to the prior year, revenue growth was driven by improvement across several end markets, particularly in Aerospace and in Electronics. Our growth opportunities remain strong.“

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Phillips 66 $PSX, Marathon $MPC, Valero $VLO:

*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

3 weeks ago

U.S. DIESEL MARGINS HIT RECORD HIGH U.S. diesel refining margins surged above a record $106 per barrel as global fuel supplies tighten. Disruptions from the Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have intensified shortages. Strong U.S.

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BASF $BAS shares are up +20% ytd. Morgan Stanley upgraded the European chemicals sector to Equal Weight from Underweight. Why? Today marks the start of the bidding process for the largest spin-off in agribusiness, €9.8bn revs, valued €16.5bn. Long Chemicals, short Goldman VIP.

Practical Options Speculation @Practical_Opt

2 months ago

BASF $BAS announced a new share buyback program in August 2026. Own shares with a volume of up to €1.0bn will be repurchased from Aug 2026 until April 2027. I like spin-offs: Capital Markets Day in Ludwigshafen on Nov 24th, a dinner with management focus Agri Solutions spin-off.

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☑️Goldman Sachs' HF VIP popular long basket, excluding the most shorted stocks, has plummeted by approximately 40% since June 2025, currently trading at $214.65, a four-year low. The red line has collapsed from its 360-point high, with crowded trades being liquidated, resulting in a double whammy for both long and short positions. ☑️The sectors previously favored by smart money are now experiencing a severe pullback, indicating the market is entering a deleveraging phase, and volatility is likely to increase. There's a reason why most actively managed funds underperform the SPY. Do you think you can beat institutional investors?

$SIVE touting Semi SuperCycle, highlighting $800B industry growth YoY...while $SIVE.ST revenue is down YoY. BTW: Sivers' SEK 115M quarterly revenue is $12M. Photonics revenue was just $3.5M, so the company has captured around 0.00023% of the 2026 SuperCycle TAM.

Refiners are making insane amounts of money 👀🛢️

Holy shit I just watched a midget TKO one of the Island Boys at Rainbet’s BrandRisk fight in Miami 💀

Steyr Motors kassiert seine Umsatzziele und lässt Anleger zweifeln: Ist der Auftragsbestand von 300 Millionen Euro wirklich sicher? #Boerse #Steyermotors #Aktie wiwo.de/unternehmen/in…

BREAKING: US diesel crack, the gap between diesel and crude, has just hit a record $102.20 for the first time in history. Food is about to get a lot more expensive. Agriculture runs on diesel equipment and shipping, heating oil is next ahead of winter, and everything moved by truck or ship will drive inflation higher. The industrial economy either grinds to a halt, or consumers are about to be hit with the biggest energy pass-through in history as refining costs transmit downstream into higher prices for businesses and consumers.

Steyr Motors, a specialist maker of engines used in tanks and military boats, cut its revenue and profit outlook due to delays in orders. Shares slumped. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Phillips 66 $PSX, Marathon $MPC, Valero $VLO 100% utilization in the 2Q. Refining very tight, 7 million BBL a day of refineries down in Asia, Mideast and 1.4 million down in Russia. Chinese exports of products half of what they have been over the last two years. Market is short.

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Practical Options Speculation @Practical_Opt

2 months ago

Fuchs Group $FPE3 +25% Q2 cons beat. Marathon $MPC, Valero $VLO & Phillips 66 $PSX crossread. „The strong earnings growth from robust sales performance, pre-buying effects from the conflict in the Middle East, limited delivery ability among certain competitors & organic growth.“

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„TAM for engineering polymers, specialty compounds, and additives specifically within data centers is $1.52 billion in 2026. Driven by the explosive growth in AI infrastructure & high-density computing, this market is projected to expand at a 14.5% CAGR to $3.44 billion by 2032.“

Practical Options Speculation @Practical_Opt

a month ago

Avient $AVNT Guidance upgrade, shares are up +50% (PolyOne & CLN merger). Envalior (Lanxess) and Avient material suppliers in the data center ecosystem. „Data center, it's about a 2bn directly addressable opportunity for us. Data center capacity to triple in the next five years“.

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Avient $AVNT Guidance upgrade, shares are up +50% (PolyOne & CLN merger). Envalior (Lanxess) and Avient material suppliers in the data center ecosystem. „Data center, it's about a 2bn directly addressable opportunity for us. Data center capacity to triple in the next five years“.

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Practical Options Speculation @Practical_Opt

a month ago

Clariant $CLN shares are up +40%, 3x broker upgrades to BUY. FY 2027e EBITDA valuation estimates FY roll over plus 7% at CHF 768m vs. 719m, FY 2028e at CHF 785m vs. 737m. Q2 EBITDA clean beat plus 17% at CHF 171m. GS new price target CHF 12 vs. CHF 8.5 (vs. CHF 7.5). SOP CHF 17.

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Lanxess $LXS October 19th, Germany's first investment summit in Berlin, Merz's government to leverage its debt-funded investment programme with "€3.75tn in additional private capital". Lanxess SOP calculation higher €35 per share 10-12x multiple, €28 Envalior 1200m, 250m debt.

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Practical Options Speculation @Practical_Opt

a month ago

Lanxess $LXS guidance upgrade was held back by self-driven Q2 inventory management in the Advanced division. Reporting 180m Q2 EBITDA would have forced an FY2026 guidance upgrade. Consumer +10m beat 81m, Specialty +15m beat 77m. Advanced 35m negative -28m against a 63m estimate.

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INDUS $INH Material Solutions guidance adj. EBITA margin has been raised 15% to 17% (prev. 8% to 10%), revs up 32% yoy to EUR 377m & adj. EBITA plus 266% to EUR 85m. China catalyst tungsten carbide, tight global supply situation & sharp increase tungsten carbide feedstock prices.

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Practical Options Speculation @Practical_Opt

2 months ago

INDUS $INH today raised its guidance for financial year 2026. The continued global supply shortage of tungsten carbide & the resulting extreme increase in material prices led to an even stronger rise in revenue than previously expected at the segment’s largest portfolio company.

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