Michael McDonald @ElectProject
Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections. electproject.org Gainesville, FL Joined September 2012-
Tweets49K
-
Followers93K
-
Following573
-
Likes1K
With NJ mail ballot data available for five counties, with a breakout of overseas civilian and military voters, it is possible to better understand who has voted in NC and NJ and what it means as a measure of voter enthusism among partisans michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/north-caroli…
0
0
5
7K
1
View Details
I'll occasionally post updates here. I post more frequently where the sky is blue. Same handle @ElectProject
#earlyvote update 9/5: 10 people have voted in the 2026 general election election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…
Florida Democratic primary turnout was down -256,053 compared to 2022, a decline nearly equal to the fewer number of mail ballot cast by registered Democrats -- which may be a result of changes to how mail ballot requests now work under SB90 michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/changes-in-f…
I wrote an analysis of the 2026 Florida Primary Turnout michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/florida-2026…
How Trump can use his Thursday national address to decertify Dominion (aka Liberty Vote) voting equipment, causing a headache for 11 states (including Georgia) michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/what-trump-m…
I analyzed turnout by race and Hispanic ethnicity in Virginia's redistricting amendment vote michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/how-did-virg…
I analyzed party registration turnout and candidate vote shares for yesterday's three Florida special elections open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
I posted a 2026 Texas Primary turnout and early voting analysis open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
Perhaps get off the CSAM platform? bbc.com/news/articles/…
A rule-of-thumb forecast that might be informative moving forward is to take the special election margin shifts over the next year and divide by half. I explain here michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/turnout-and-…
Posted VEP turnout rates for the 2025 statewide elections, with an analysis open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
I did a Virginia turnout analysis open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
Updated the early vote analysis for California, where registered Democrats slightly improved their position from my update last Friday. They're going into today with a +5.5 point shift from 2024 in the early vote open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
Last early vote update of the day from Virginia posted open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
Continuing to update early voting analyses more states as data become available. New Jersey added most recently. You'll have to follow me on the other site where an algorithm doesn't control your feed if you want real time updates open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
I added the first state with updated data -- Connecticut -- to my election even early vote analysis. I'll post updates to this post throughout the data as more states' data becomes available open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
Posted a Virginia early voting analysis. Short story: Virginia may be tighter than New Jersey, but there's been one week less early voting at satellite early voting centers in large Democratic localities that is confounding the data open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
My analysis of CA's early voting for Prop 50. CA has the highest level of voting among states where elections are taking place. There is a net 5.3 shift in party reg towards Democrats compared to the same day in 2024, boding well for passage of Prop 50 michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/california-e…
Posted a New Mexico early vote analysis, which indicates a coming blue wave just like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
My analysis of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut's early voting (all states with party registration and data where I can make a same-day 2024 comparisons) open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…
Tom Bonier @tbonier
109K Followers 990 Following CEO @thetara_group, Sr Advisor @TargetSmart, former @HowardU, @claritycampaign, @ncec1948, @SEIULocal500. DM inquiries
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
205K Followers 2K Following CEO, The Nevada Independent. Your State. Your News. Your Voice. [email protected] #WeMatter. Author of "The Game Changer," the biography of Harry Reid.
Taniel @Taniel
129K Followers 816 Following Daniel Nichanian. https://t.co/vIb1Tme7H9 Editor & founder of @BoltsMag. Local politics, criminal justice, voting rights.
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
94K Followers 3K Following a machine learning/software engineer. also political data @TheArgumentMag, co-founder @SplitTicket_, and @cal alum. ✉️ [email protected]. i hate sports
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
72K Followers 3K Following Managing editor @VotebeatUS. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
440K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Jacob Rubashkin @JacobRubashkin
39K Followers 2K Following deputy editor @InsideElections / formerly @NBCNews, @cnn, @cornellsun / say hello: [email protected]
Ryan Brune @BruneElections
27K Followers 602 Following Politics and Mapping Fanatic. Econ, Math, and Statistics. Go Bucks. Nonpartisan analysis, though will occasionally offer (liberal) personal opinions.
Max @maxtmcc
32K Followers 530 Following @SplitTicket_ | maps, data, and more | still an ardent supporter of long nebraska
J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
58K Followers 6K Following Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. Mostly here to boost other political mappers. He/him
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy
59K Followers 2K Following Polling editor @CNN; keeping (cross)tabs on public opinion and the news. LA native, formerly @HuffPost. I like puns.
Kyle Kondik @kkondik
61K Followers 4K Following American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at https://t.co/vMxRSSZvVT
stephen fowler @stphnfwlr
47K Followers 2K Following political reporter covering the south + future of GOP/Dem parties + ??? for @npr/@nprpolitics | always thinking of bourbon, biscuits and buc-ee’s
The Downballot on Blu... @downballotnews
50K Followers 160 Following Covering every race, from kickoff to call
Steve Schale @steveschale
39K Followers 6K Following #FloridaMan (& now part-time WNC Man) Political Hack 08/12/20 POTUS vet. Passions: @acypl @driveftf @EpilepsyAFLA Long suffering Jaguars & WhiteSox fan #DUUUVAL
Dr. John R. Samuelsen @JohnRSamuelsen
23K Followers 159 Following Science & Tech Administrator - Arkansas Archeological Survey | Grad Faculty - Dept of Anthro, U of Arkansas | Likes Data | represents my personal views only
Liam Donovan @LPDonovan
51K Followers 4K Following Politics. Hoyas. YMMV. Views expressed are mine alone, obviously. @TargetedVictory
Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH
14K Followers 1K Following I cover politics and forecast elections at RacetotheWH, and came the closest to predicting the House correctly in 2022. @ColumbiaSIPA Alum
John Couvillon @WinWithJMC
29K Followers 1K Following JMC Analytics & Polling Founder/Owner Award winning pollster/4x finalist (C&Es Reed Awards) Political strategist/Numbers guy
Kwaku Frempong @KwakuFremp10
0 Followers 133 Following
Ian Williams @IanWilliams789
2 Followers 54 Following
Tyler Roberts @TheReal_T_Rob
1 Followers 24 Following
Angela Van Nuck @AngelaVanNxc
2 Followers 105 Following
Kavino @Kavino51
1 Followers 79 Following
Rhonda King @Bamachic63
5 Followers 73 Following
Teresa Kohler @TeresaKohlicg
5 Followers 73 Following
Ed Jepson @EdJepsonal2l
3 Followers 82 Following
Jessie S @JessieSsv
4 Followers 55 Following
Scott Reichle @SR74_4thempire
10 Followers 103 Following
Precinct Room @PrecinctRoom
0 Followers 20 Following Mapping US elections, precinct by precinct. Data, charts and live election night coverage (German stream). Graphics free to use with credit.
Polymetric @polymetric_news
6 Followers 85 Following
Vic @vic_zic1
1 Followers 80 Following
Phyllis @Pjacoby57
1 Followers 77 Following
Mary Favara @MaryFavarasp
3 Followers 101 Following
RT hector @RThectorf65u
0 Followers 105 Following
Brenda Smith @BrendaSmit9gyd
84 Followers 701 Following
YAM ECONS @YamAndKnifeEcon
1 Followers 52 Following Breaking down Nigerian macroeconomics in premium local parlance & Gen Z speak. 📈Demystifying the "Yam & Knife" economy for consumers at home & the Diaspora. 🌍
Kathy Ward @KathyWezb7
3 Followers 92 Following
THOMAS P GUZZO @THOMASPGUZziro
7 Followers 119 Following
Tish Flores @Tish4Comish
6 Followers 145 Following
Roy Barron @RoyBarron196464
15 Followers 196 Following
Angela Harral @TexasGlamma
5 Followers 76 Following
Seth Cohen @sethacohen33
8K Followers 6K Following Co-founder, Optimistic Labs 🚀 Co-founder, ILC 🗞️ Sr. Advisor, @independent_cen ✨ past: Chief Impact Officer @ Forbes 🚀#OptimisticUpstate
craig @craigh4sm
3 Followers 30 Following
SG @SGiarur
0 Followers 35 Following
Leoni Kurt Nieves @LeoniKurtNieves
7 Followers 57 Following Broken Child of the Most High God! Here to point out the abundant hypocrisy of the left. Make Asylums Great Again. MAGA all day!
RoughRider @RoughRideraz40
8 Followers 96 Following
BlueBoy @blueboy_2023
543 Followers 5K Following Proud 💙 Independent/Staunch Liberal 💙, 100% real user, DM's are open, please be respectful, thank you
Jacob Pendleton @eusoujaco
4 Followers 78 Following
HaydeneWade @HaydeneWadd0
1 Followers 13 Following
Gaslightcitazen @gaslitcitizen
1K Followers 3K Following Democrats’ mission is obvious: Manipulate the vulnerable, get them to vote, and then disregard them! Rinse and repeat! Trump/Patriot/Gen-X/Nationalist!
Luis Rodrigo Golcher ... @luis_golcher
3 Followers 266 Following
MAGA E Files 🍊🙈... @MEGAFDT2
8 Followers 184 Following Curious? Type 'Trump' in the DOJ search bar. You're welcome. 😉
Teri Woodrum @TeriWoodrum65
15 Followers 112 Following
charles isenberg @Chuk554
2 Followers 14 Following
Peter Sloan @CatNamedTiddles
20 Followers 98 Following
batman @batmank3xz
0 Followers 36 Following
Stephen Zubrycky @stephenzubrycky
243 Followers 256 Following BDE (big dad energy). Goofball. Anti-stupid. MUP Candidate @NYUWagner.
Tom Finley @TomFinleys7
15 Followers 113 Following
ArnaldoIrizarry @ArnaldoIrij2
5 Followers 78 Following
Luke @Luke_MSPMN
9 Followers 152 Following
Chris @Chris72023
7 Followers 50 Following
TheRenaissanceProject @TRenaissancePro
2 Followers 73 Following everyday trying be better version of my self photographer, videographer and film maker
Tom Bonier @tbonier
109K Followers 990 Following CEO @thetara_group, Sr Advisor @TargetSmart, former @HowardU, @claritycampaign, @ncec1948, @SEIULocal500. DM inquiries
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
205K Followers 2K Following CEO, The Nevada Independent. Your State. Your News. Your Voice. [email protected] #WeMatter. Author of "The Game Changer," the biography of Harry Reid.
Taniel @Taniel
129K Followers 816 Following Daniel Nichanian. https://t.co/vIb1Tme7H9 Editor & founder of @BoltsMag. Local politics, criminal justice, voting rights.
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
72K Followers 3K Following Managing editor @VotebeatUS. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
120K Followers 500 Following data-driven journalist, pollster & author of the book & Substack STRENGTH IN NUMBERS. co-founder @50plus1news. pollster @wave_polling. email me not DM
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
440K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy
59K Followers 2K Following Polling editor @CNN; keeping (cross)tabs on public opinion and the news. LA native, formerly @HuffPost. I like puns.
Kyle Kondik @kkondik
61K Followers 4K Following American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at https://t.co/vMxRSSZvVT
stephen fowler @stphnfwlr
47K Followers 2K Following political reporter covering the south + future of GOP/Dem parties + ??? for @npr/@nprpolitics | always thinking of bourbon, biscuits and buc-ee’s
The Downballot on Blu... @downballotnews
50K Followers 160 Following Covering every race, from kickoff to call
Steve Schale @steveschale
39K Followers 6K Following #FloridaMan (& now part-time WNC Man) Political Hack 08/12/20 POTUS vet. Passions: @acypl @driveftf @EpilepsyAFLA Long suffering Jaguars & WhiteSox fan #DUUUVAL
Dr. John R. Samuelsen @JohnRSamuelsen
23K Followers 159 Following Science & Tech Administrator - Arkansas Archeological Survey | Grad Faculty - Dept of Anthro, U of Arkansas | Likes Data | represents my personal views only
Liam Donovan @LPDonovan
51K Followers 4K Following Politics. Hoyas. YMMV. Views expressed are mine alone, obviously. @TargetedVictory
Michael Li 李之樸 @mcpli
24K Followers 3K Following Redistricting & voting counsel at @brennancenter at @NYUlaw. Opinions mine. Usual caveats about retweets. From TX, so lots of tweets about the Lone Star State.
Grace Panetta @grace_panetta
46K Followers 3K Following Politics reporter @19thnews. Past: @businessinsider. Always looking for the gender angle. Say hi [email protected]. gracepanetta.03 on Signal
Rick Hasen @rickhasen
80K Followers 893 Following Professor @UCLA_Law; Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project https://t.co/0QyrTXwnam @rickhasen.bsky.social Election Law Blogger
Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics
38K Followers 870 Following Fantasy baseball manager who does political handicapping in spare time. @Colby, @UConn. Taught Poli Sci @Bucknell. Rothenberg Political Report.
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
229K Followers 145 Following Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. https://t.co/9MdpDsMxJd
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann
32K Followers 2K Following Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. I was hacked but have regained access. please ignore today's posts
Brandon Meyer @meyer0656
1K Followers 210 Following AI, Big Data and Elections @fladatacom, @freshtakefla and https://t.co/MIeRWCqev6. Dev and Adjunct @UF. Hiker of Long Trails. Past @TB_Times, @datapath, @USMC
Sam Almy @sfalmy
9K Followers 375 Following Democratic political strategist who also tracks early ballots @UpliftTweets. Numbers are approximate. EV Link: https://t.co/k18oudhJid
Wes Allen Alabama Sec... @alasecofstate
7K Followers 520 Following Official Twitter account for the Office of Alabama Secretary of State, Wes Allen
Data Trust @TheDataTrust
2K Followers 1K Following Data Trust builds, enriches, and maintains the highest quality political data for right-of-center and conservative clients.
R. Michael Alvarez @rmichaelalvarez
5K Followers 5K Following Election science pioneer. Prof at Caltech. Co-Director, Linde Center for Science, Society, and Policy.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powel... @DebbieforFL
54K Followers 901 Following Mother, Latina, first South American immigrant elected to Congress, fanática del Inter Miami. Views expressed on this account are my own.
EU says Elon should n... @emptywheel
295K Followers 6K Following Abundant tweets about civil liberties & national security*** Legendary potty mouth*** Also at @[email protected] & @emptywheel.bsky.social 🗽🇪🇺
Becca Siegel @beccasiegel
4K Followers 192 Following chief insights officer @amprog | analytics, polling, etc @kamalaharris (2024), @whitehouse, & @joebiden (2020) | "unusually honest for a data person" (always)
John B. Holbein @JohnHolbein1
61K Followers 24K Following Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, Education @UVAbatten
Aaron Rupar @atrupar
1.1M Followers 6K Following journalist. sign up for my newsletter, Public Notice (link below). Powered by @SnapStream (more info: https://t.co/2oHPuuFBnN).
Public Rights Project @publicrightspro
2K Followers 803 Following We close the gap between the promise of our laws and the lived reality of underserved communities.
CassidyReller @CassidyReller
190 Followers 160 Following Assistant Professor @UFPoliSci studying State Politics and Political Parties. Political Science Ph.D. from @UCSD | Proud @LafCol Alum.
CBS News Poll @CBSNewsPoll
16K Followers 300 Following CBS News Poll Official X (Twitter) account by @CBSNews
YouGov America @YouGovAmerica
32K Followers 2K Following YouGov gathers real opinions and behaviors from worldwide panel members to power insights into what the world thinks. For press inquiries: [email protected]
MonmouthPoll @MonmouthPoll
35K Followers 561 Following Our mission is to foster greater public accountability by ensuring that the public’s voice is heard in the policy discourse.
Seo-young Silvia Kim @sysilviakim
3K Followers 2K Following Asst. Prof., @SeoulNatlUni. @Caltech PhD, before at @AmericanU, Sogang U. Election (admin)/money in politics/css + methods. Opinions mine and not my employer’s
Fresh Take Florida @FreshTakeFla
1K Followers 261 Following Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications.
Evan 🗳️ 🇺🇸... @floridamann03
1K Followers 2K Following Elections 📊, Maps 🗺️ , Urbanism 🚊, Education 👨🏻🏫
RJ🌷🗺️ @RJ_maps
2K Followers 1K Following Angie Nixon Democrat🌹 @UF 🐊 he/him @OrlandoCitySC @Arsenal #AOC2028
NYC Board of Election... @BOENYC
33K Followers 3K Following Go to https://t.co/ESgjGseEI1 to learn more about voting and serving as an NYC poll worker!
Maxwell Clarke @MaxwElections
218 Followers 744 Following My other ride is a voting machine 🗳️ Californi-Canadian PhD student @ufelectionlab, Exec Director @gaeaorg, I follow election-related accounts, views my own.
Nikki Fried @NikkiFried
249K Followers 2K Following Chairwoman @FlaDems. Florida’s last statewide elected Democrat. Past Commissioner of Agriculture. 💙 Florida. #WontBackDown 🦋 @nikkifried.bsky.social
Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan
2.3M Followers 5K Following British-American journalist. Editor-in-chief and CEO of new media company @zeteo_news. Subscribe here: https://t.co/sEC1ETzeiV.
The Onion @TheOnion
10.6M Followers 14 Following America's Finest News Source. Get the paper delivered to your door: https://t.co/jJP2Apbhe8. Signup for The Onion newsletter https://t.co/koxBGNkhqO
Alejandro Trelles @ATrelles
737 Followers 2K Following Professor at Brandeis University interested in Elections and Redistricting in Comparative Perspective / Lives in Boston, MA
FIRE @TheFIREorg
225K Followers 3K Following We defend and promote free speech for all Americans in our courtrooms, on our campuses, and in our culture.
Ted Bridis @tbridis
8K Followers 3K Following I ♥ journalism. Formerly AP's editor of Pulitzer-winning investigative team, Wall Street Journal alum. Mizzou grad.
Yael Bromberg יָע�... @YaelBromberg
2K Followers 3K Following Bromberg Law LLC | Constitutional, Elections/Voting Rights, Civil Rights Law | #26thAmendment scholar | Election Law Prof. | @USAPromise | #AbolishTheLine
Adrian Fontes @Adrian_Fontes
58K Followers 2K Following USMC Vet. Dad. Arizona Secretary of State. Personal account. RT≠endorsement
Adam Kinzinger (Slava... @AdamKinzinger
1.1M Followers 2K Following Dad. Husband. Former GOP congressman. Voted to impeach Trump. Now fighting for our democracy. Lt. Col. @AirNatlGuard (ret). Founder @thecountryfirst.
Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
1.6M Followers 8K Following Lincoln Project. The Marque. Renee's husband. Dad. Grandfather. Ad guy. Writer. Instrument-rated pilot. Beechcraft driver. NYT #1 best-seller. DMs unattended.
The Alligator @TheAlligator
40K Followers 796 Following Bringing UF and Gainesville the latest since 1906. @alligatorSports
Hakeem Jeffries @RepJeffries
1.0M Followers 1K Following Brooklyn Congressman. Leader @HouseDemocrats. Work hard. Stay focused. Deliver results #ForThePeople.
Nick Seabrook @DrSeabrook
1K Followers 604 Following Political scientist. Author of ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE, a @newyorker best book of 2022. https://t.co/ayuoBDWhlU…
Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC
154K Followers 6K Following Political Strategist, Commentator, Hopium Purveyor | NDN, DNC, DCCC, Clinton War Room, ABC News | Slava Ukraini! | My home - https://t.co/TkYENB1lNw
Carrie Levine @levinecarrie
9K Followers 4K Following Editor-in-chief, @VotebeatUS. Always following the money.
Andrew Lawrence @ndrew_lawrence
61K Followers 4K Following Deputy Director of Rapid Response @mmfa but views here are my own - 99% of RTs are endorsements
Dean Baker @DeanBaker13
73K Followers 348 Following Senior economist at the Center for Economic &Policy Research (@ceprdc). Blog-- Beat the Press (@beat_the_press) Tweets are my own views. @deanbaker13.bsky.socia
USGS Volcanoes🌋 @USGSVolcanoes
167K Followers 96 Following Delivering official updates and info for U.S. volcanoes. https://t.co/eugs1G0ISb email: [email protected]
Kristen Soltis Anders... @KSoltisAnderson
72K Followers 343 Following Pollster/founder: @echeloninsights. On TV: @cnn. Writing: @nytopinion, The Selfie Vote. Florida woman. Let your speech always be with grace, seasoned with salt.
Elizabeth C. Sena @elizabethcsena
587 Followers 2K Following Democratic Pollster, Partner @GQRR, Gators Fan @UF, Horse and Dog Lover, Wife, and best of all: Mom to 2 amazing kidsTrends for United States
You might like
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
610K Followers
Marc E. Elias
@marceelias
839K Followers
G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
120K Followers
Steve Vladeck
@steve_vladeck
201K Followers
Cook Political Report
@CookPolitical
221K Followers
J. Miles Coleman
@JMilesColeman
58K Followers
Seung Min Kim
@seungminkim
274K Followers
.
@GregTSargent
298K Followers
Stuart Stevens
@stuartpstevens
248K Followers
Ryan Goodman
@rgoodlaw
187K Followers
Ronald Brownstein
@RonBrownstein
117K Followers
Rick Hasen
@rickhasen
80K Followers
Jason Kander
@JasonKander
316K Followers
Amy Walter
@amyewalter
197K Followers
Norman Ornstein
@NormOrnstein
231K Followers