Danny @wallstdanny

@AbdrazakAlmas @AC__research Do you have any good writeups/material on the name?

❗️We just bought almost 1% of a tiny European gas producer. And we think it may be one of the most asymmetric bets we’ve found this year. European gas is back above €80/MWh, storage levels are low, and we don’t think Europe’s energy problems are over. We’re Europeans ourselves, so our thinking is simple: if we’re going to freeze at home this winter, we’d rather get rich while doing it than just freeze. Over the past few weeks, we’ve therefore bought as many shares as liquidity allowed. Together with our partners, we now own close to 1% of the entire company. And liquidity matters here. A large part of the shares is held by management, insiders and other long-term holders, so building a meaningful position isn’t particularly easy. We don’t plan on selling ours anytime soon either. Why do we like this setup so much? • Potential ~5x production growth. The company is approaching several important catalysts that could allow production to increase dramatically over the coming months and years. • Multiple near-term catalysts. Permits, reserve development and new production could all materially change the economics of the company. Several of these catalysts could arrive within the next few months. • Extremely attractive gas economics. The company produces exceptionally clean, low-cost natural gas and sells its production essentially at spot prices, even achieving a premium to the relevant benchmark. • The downside case still looks attractive. We don’t need another European energy crisis for the investment to work. If only a few things go right and gas prices eventually normalize, we still see a realistic path to 100%+ upside over the next 3–4 years. • The bull case is much more interesting. The company owns additional projects to which we believe the market currently assigns essentially zero value. If those assets are developed and European gas prices remain elevated, our bull case points toward roughly a 5x return over the next four years. • And management is unusually aligned. The CEO has significant skin in the game, takes relatively modest compensation, and doesn’t want to endlessly recycle cash into new oil & gas projects. The objective is to derisk and monetize the existing assets and ultimately return the cash to shareholders. That last point is particularly important to us. We’ve looked at plenty of tiny commodity producers where management seems more interested in building an empire than creating per-share value. We think the incentives here are very different. The asymmetry is what ultimately made us build such a large position. If European gas prices normalize significantly, we believe the company can still create substantial shareholder value simply by executing on the assets it already owns. But if Europe’s energy crisis persists, production ramps as planned, and some of the assets currently valued at essentially zero begin to be monetized, the economics become completely different. It’s also exactly the kind of diversification we’re looking for right now. While seemingly everyone is chasing the same AI trades at increasingly demanding valuations, this is a tiny, overlooked European gas producer with completely different return drivers and potentially enormous operating leverage to one of Europe’s biggest macro risks. My colleague put together what I think is one of the best write-ups we’ve published on our Substack so far — very concise, straight to the point, and easy to follow. Definitely worth a read if the idea sounds interesting. Our full investment thesis, valuation scenarios and the company itself are all in the Substack write-up below.

@lasse108 Could be Arrow Exploration: arboratorcapitalresearch.substack.com/p/arrow-explor…

1/3 — THE ENERGY CRISIS IS BACK 🛢️🔥 Hormuz is still effectively closed. The war is escalating. Brent is back above $100/bbl. And Europe may be heading straight into another energy shock. At this point, tankers in the Gulf are starting to look less like commercial vessels and more like targets at a shooting range. And the problem is no longer just crude oil. The entire global energy system is becoming increasingly tight at the same time: → Brent is back above $100/bbl → Normal shipping through Hormuz remains severely disrupted, cutting off one of the most important arteries of the global oil & LNG market. → Russian refining capacity and product exports remain constrained. → Middle Eastern exports of refined products have been severely disrupted. → Global inventories of middle distillates are extremely tight. → European diesel is now trading around $200/bbl, while diesel refining margins recently reached all-time highs. → US diesel prices have also reached record levels. And now natural gas is joining the party. European TTF is approaching €80/MWh — the highest level since early 2023 — while European storage is only ~67% full heading into winter. This is becoming a particularly nasty combination for Europe: Less LNG + less refined-product supply + extremely tight diesel markets + low gas inventories + winter approaching. And unlike earlier this year, this is no longer just a theoretical geopolitical risk premium. It is showing up directly in physical energy markets. Diesel cracks are exploding. Gas is exploding. Oil is above $100. Shipping remains heavily disrupted. And the longer Hormuz stays constrained, the more inventories are being drawn down. We have been positioning our portfolio for this scenario for months. And interestingly, we don’t think crude oil itself is necessarily the best way to play it anymore. There are several businesses downstream — particularly refiners and a few very specific European gas producers — where the earnings sensitivity to what is happening right now is absolutely enormous. Some of them are effectively turning into cash-printing machines at current spot prices. And that’s where we have been putting capital. ↓ Our three favorite ways to play the energy shock:

Arborator Capital Research @AC__research

2 months ago

🔥 The ultimate portfolio hedge against further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz? We think we’ve found it. A stock that could benefit enormously if oil prices spike further… while still offering substantial upside even if geopolitical tensions ease. Since the conflict around

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Drones are perhaps the most important theme of modern warfare – and the few companies that offer protection from them could benefit massively. Trust me, you'll want to read this writeup:

Arborator Capital Research @AC__research

a month ago

🤖💥The Ultimate Drone Warfare Portfolio: 3 of Our High-Conviction and the most interesting Ideas Drone warfare is no longer the future of modern warfare. It is already here. Ukraine has shown how cheap FPV drones can inflict enormous losses on conventional forces at a fraction

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@ACapitalLP $AXL.L small oil producer with no hedging, on track to generate 100% of its EV in cash flow this year. And a big catalyst in license extension, which just became more likely with latest elections arboratorcapitalresearch.substack.com/p/arrow-explor…

$AXL.V might be the best macro hedge and cash-flow story hiding in oil right now:

Arborator Capital Research @AC__research

2 months ago

🔥 The ultimate portfolio hedge against further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz? We think we’ve found it. A stock that could benefit enormously if oil prices spike further… while still offering substantial upside even if geopolitical tensions ease. Since the conflict around

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One of our highest-conviction ideas is going live today🔥 44% revenue growth until 2028 4x 2028 earnings Potential dividend approaching 10% in 2028 Large discount versus peers High barriers to entry non AI and uncorrelated to broader market 55 % IRR over 3 years in the base case Imagine finding a founder-led company with a unique competitive position, operating in a niche market with powerful long-term structural tailwinds, trading at a valuation that looks more like a struggling cyclical business than a high-quality compounder. That’s exactly what we believe we’ve found. Based on management guidance and our own work, the business is expected to compound revenue at roughly 44% per year through 2028, while earnings should grow even faster as margins expand. Yet despite that growth profile, the company is currently trading at only ~4x our 2028 earnings estimate, with the potential to deliver a dividend yield approaching 10% on today’s purchase price if management executes on its stated payout policy. What makes this opportunity even more compelling is that the business combines: * Founder-led management with strong alignment. * A vertically integrated model that gives it structurally higher margins than peers. * Significant barriers to entry and multiple long-term growth drivers. * A much higher-quality business than comparable companies, yet trading at a meaningful valuation discount. * A business model that we believe is considerably less cyclical than the market currently assumes. Over the past weeks we’ve aggressively built a large position, because we believe the current valuation materially underestimates both the quality of the business and its earnings power over the next several years. If the company simply executes on its existing project pipeline, we think the market will eventually be forced to recognize that disconnect. The full deep dive is now live on our Substack. We cover the complete investment thesis, competitive advantages, valuation model, key risks, management incentives, and detailed return scenarios explaining why we believe this is one of the best risk/reward opportunities we currently see anywhere in the market. Link is in the bio.

🚀 Our first deep-dive on Substack is finally live! We decided to start with our largest portfolio position — $212A.T #212A (FitEasy). In our opinion, it’s one of the most mispriced small caps we’ve found globally, and we believe it has the potential for more than 100 % return over the next 2–3 years if the business continues executing as we expect. 📖 Read the full write-up here: substack.com/@arboratorcapi… Compared with the X thread, the Substack version includes an updated valuation model, cleaner formatting and a more detailed explanation of our investment thesis. A huge thank you to everyone who has already read and shared it. Since publishing the write-up, FitEasy has gained another ~10%, accompanied by noticeably higher trading volumes. We’re glad the company is reaching a wider audience and, more importantly, we continue to believe the investment thesis is playing out. At the same time, $SMSH.TA (Smart Shooter) has also appreciated by more than 10% since we first shared our research. Together with FitEasy, these remain our two highest-conviction positions today. We’re currently working on several additional deep dives covering what we believe are highly asymmetric investment opportunities across different sectors and regions. Thanks to the recent performance of these positions, my personal portfolio has now surpassed +80% YTD. Hopefully that’s only the beginning. We look forward to sharing many more ideas with you over the coming months.

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@thaAdamLittle spill the tea

@shomikghosh21 the NRR is incredible

$VHI.TO keeps executing

@SimeonResearch_ @stonkmetal Agree with $VHI.TO Here's my writeup from a year ago: ainvestments.substack.com/p/vitalhub

@SuperMarius19 @DVolkind ainvestments.substack.com/p/hirequest-ko…

So it begins

bargainbinstocks @bargainbinstock

2 years ago

Wow. $CPH.TO is seeking NASDAQ listing in the near future and seeking to make this a US based operation.

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New acquisition announced today, should double (!) Cipher’s revenue and earnings Noteworthy is also the acquired team of 50 US salespeople, possibly opening up a way to sell more products in this huge market $CPH.TO up 22% today and 178% since my writeup :

Danny @wallstdanny

3 years ago

The $CPH.TO thesis is playing out really well, today hitting +100% since my writeup However, there is still enormous potential in case the pipeline products get approved (which is quite likely imo)

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@vardevalpen @capitalemployed @ElementaryValue @dirtcheapstocks I think it would trade at a much higher multiple if it werent so small

So many Polish stocks out there that are growing sales >20% yet trade at damn low multiples

@ReaperCapital @CCM_Brett how did you combine them?

@IrrationalMrkts What you're describing is exactly what happened at $DRX.TO ... hopefully atlas can achieve the same