Andre Vlok @vlok_andre
Conflict and employment dispute specialist, negotiator, mediator, arbitrator, author 📧 [email protected] Blog : https://t.co/sMWwoNa2qB conflict-conversations.co.za Port Elizabeth, South Africa Joined November 2018-
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@BrianGreenstei2 @Bruceps The situation is not improved by taking no action, as the world has come to know
Clear, obvious escalation. This is not about the remaining "asks". We shall soon see the real reason for the escalation
U.S. reaction on the 3rd Bozell démarche by DIRCO: State Dept Spox: "Ambassador Bozell went to South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) to discuss the bilateral relationship. He stressed that the United States has been clear about the
A terrible idea, on several fronts
Ripping apart NATO for his Russian master, Trump says the UK, the Baltics and France are not allowed to attend next month's NATO summit in Poland. A reminder, the Baltics are next on Putin's list and all 3 cannot attend.
@ori0n7 @grok Those excluded countries are on the frontline of current developments in the region. They should at the very least have been included in the meeting. The timing of the messaging, speculative or otherwise, is irresponsible. See for example
🇷🇺🇪🇺RUSSIA says nuclear warning over Kaliningrad blockade is not confrontational, according to Kremlin Spokesman. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated today that recent Russia's warnings regarding the consequences of any attempt to blockade Kaliningrad should not be seen as
The firestarting warning has (at least) two applications. People like the weekend's participants are creating frameworks of political arguments and future conflicts that can reasonably be expected to escalate into the irresponsible messaging we now see from Carlson, Hofmeyr and others. It is foreseeable, legally and morally. A second possibility, one on which I have cautioned before, is that these campaigns will create identity conflict pushbacks internally, in South Africa. We are already seeing the very clear signs of this. In both instances, these dangers and expanded risks are perfectly foreseeable, nearly inevitable. Those risks remain, regardless of the motivation of the messengers
And we're off again. Play with fire, don't be surprised if it burns out of control
They've told us that ethnic cleansing against whites in South Africa isn’t happening. They say it’s a racist conspiracy theory. Leon Lotz knows they’re lying. He’s a South African farmer. His story will shock and sicken you.
We cannot understand, and work with, the unresolved conflicts of South Africa without having a comprehensive knowledge of identity conflicts. My series on this starts today conflict-conversations.co.za/conversations/…
@LoverOfThings2k Still reading with your finger, I see
Happy birthday, Vladimir Horowitz. Thank you for the music, bro 😉 app.idagio.com/albums/vladimi…
@Lionsavvy77 The woke right. Hurt by ideas
/ Should we ignore these absurd accusations? What are our best conflict strategies? I mapped out a few ideas in this article, back in April of this year - Cry Genocide conflict-conversations.co.za/conversations/…
@vrydenker That undercurrent of violence is everywhere, left, right and most other places. This "left is violent" is one of the more hilarious of the current MAGA tropes
I don't know about this argument - I like the fresh approach, but I often use PD frames in conflict consultancy work, and I think there are a few pieces missing. A classic PD has a unique, dominant strategy of defection as an intrinsic part of the boundaries of the game. Realworld politics is usually a repeated, multi-player, incomplete-information game, with some pieces in existence but hidden, others that are undecided depending on interlinked decisions to come, or events outside of everyone's control, and with overlapping time horizons. Under one party dominance the dominant party faces a relatively simple extraction vs survival tradeoff that really skews these calculations. In the book that I am working on right now, I have mapped a few of these scenarios, and multiparty coalitions replace that with a different set of strategic problems: holdup by junior partners, blame shifting, shorter effective time horizons when coalitions look fragile, and log-rolling that can be either welfare improving or simply a more complicated form of rentseeking. Those are not automatically Stag Hunt payoffs. Competition can discipline monopoly extraction; we have seen that in a few examples, and that part of the argument is standard and often true. But proportional representation plus coalition bargaining also multiplies veto players and raises the cost of policy change. This, I think, skews the board to the extent that the article's predictions become less solid. Whether that net effect is “more public-regarding behaviour” depends on other institutions, for example list versus constituency systems, campaign finance rules, judicial enforcement, and how easily coalitions can be reconstituted after collapse, stabilizing effects like the coalition legislation kicking in and so on. SA’s municipal coalition record already shows frequent, near predictable, instability and patronage bargaining rather than a clean shift toward longer-term citizen aligned strategies. So the structural claim is a bit under specified. Electoral fragmentation changes the game, but it does not by itself convert a PD into a reliable calculation tool in our coalition chaos. I love the idea, and the article opens an interesting debate, it's just not as good an answer as I would like to work with
ROSS HARVEY | Coalition politics provide a way out of our prisoner’s dilemma businessday.co.za/opinion/2026-1…
/ Being a so-called middle power (I will use "constrained power") in the modern geopolitical world is a tough job. That job is made so much more challenging by domestic errors, poor conflict outcomes and outdated leadership skills. Partisan selfishness, coalition chaos and structural decay all have a direct bearing on our diplomatic options and strength. Our political leaders either do not make this connection, they are unwilling to let go of outdated strategies, or they are unable to get these alignments connected, for the best futures for all of us
TIGHTROPE South Africa's place, strategies, risks and options in the developing multipolar world. A working thread on the book I am currently writing 🧵 ☕️ 📚 Draft cover and chapter index (working documents, before the human designers take over)
@ricardomackenzi @CityofCT @WCGovCas An excellent initiative
Join us for this popular national distance-learning advanced conflict course, or ask for your copy of the prospectus
@nomsietjie96 That tells us the story right there
It seems as if they did mention "genocide" earlier, in isolated instances. For me the larger point is that whether they used the term "genocide" or just irresponsibly framed, and then aggressively pushed, an agenda that had all the potential to get out of hand, the result is the same. You cannot start small fires and then sit back when it becomes a serious fire
@RomanCabanac @uMarhobane Well, that is my point. So you can keep the "bravo"
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