TEB @tebrabbit
experimenting at @magicmarkets I like to run until my feet hurt Joined August 2022-
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i see some of you have been downloading the @magicmarkets mobile app - very sneaky. its very much a beta product right now with no trading enabled. more coming very soon on this but mobile is coming.
Zero fees?!? No way! Polymarket you shouldn’t have.
In celebration of an incredible Week 1, we're waiving all fees on NFL & college football for games this weekend (Sept 19-20) on Polymarket.com Zero fees. All weekend. Every football market 👇 poly.market/fcAX8PS-copy
Big week for prediction markets. Big budgets. Big billboards. Big… exposure. But most of it is US-only. If you're anywhere else, the markets with actual depth are on MagicMarkets.
I’m working on highlighting some key insights from Magic and giving you guys updates on trending markets and where you can find an edge on Magic. Give @youpredictit a follow
🔥 Chinese Taipei vs Japan is trending on MagicMarkets — Vol up 58% (hour). Take a look 👇 magicmarkets.com/sports/basketb…
Hyrox has changed its rules following an incident where an athlete soiled herself during a race but was still allowed to win.
@CryptoBetsss pls
epic.
The camera panning from the clock at 0:07 to Pierce Brosnan. Absolute cinema.
eat your heart out sydney sweeney
If you only care about picking the favorite, staring at someone else’s green screenshot after one win and dreaming of the same result, skip this one If you want to take a couple of steps toward thinking like a pro, look at how Asian handicaps let you trade the distribution of a result Professional prediction traders do not just ask who wins. They price the entire distribution of possible outcomes That is why I choose @magicmarkets. It is the only prediction market aggregator I know that lets you trade that distribution through Asian handicap That is the problem with 1X2. It takes all that information and squeezes it into three boxes: win, draw, loss. Asian handicap gives you a whole ladder instead: 0 -> (-0.25) -> (-0.5) -> (-0.75) -> -1 Now you can express how strong your conviction actually is Maybe your model says Liverpool are clearly stronger, but a win is far from certain. In 1X2, you have to buy the win or stay out With Asian handicap, you can choose the exposure that actually matches your distribution Quarter lines are where this precision really shows -0.25 sits between 0 and -0.5. -0.75 sits between -0.5 and -1 If you are making hundreds or thousands of predictions, you do not only care about whether the position has +EV You care about how that EV is distributed across outcomes and how much variance you take to realize it That matters enormously over a long sample If you are making hundreds or thousands of predictions, you do not only care about whether the position has +EV. You care about how that EV is distributed across outcomes and how much variance you take to realize it This is also why the 50/50 area matters so much When the market is close to evenly matched, there is no obvious favorite to hide behind. Small differences in your probability estimate can make one handicap +EV while the next one is not A binary prediction market throws most of that information away It asks: Will Team A win? The model is asking something much richer: How is the probability distributed across the possible margins? Asian handicap gives you a market for that answer 1X2 gives you the winner Asian handicap gives you the distribution
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@mini_boss_io @natehopps @CryptoBetsss We have a beta app currently being built but will be read only for the time being. I’m working on some new ideas for the social side of PMs and hope to share more on our plans soon 🤝
@magicmarkets Daejon Love would make a good head of fraud detection
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