Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology @profesterman

Bird flu update, SA: H5N1 now confirmed in 5 endangered Australian sea lions (Kangaroo Is. + the Pages), plus a fox in Adelaide. SA accounts for 318 of 583 national events. No poultry cases; human risk low. See sick/dead wildlife? Don't touch – call 1800 675 888.

@adelaide_life Notifications individually are not particularly helpful, but patterns can be interpreted

Here are the current COVID notifications for South Australia for 2026. Relatively quiet at the moment. Note that we did not get the Winter (June) peak this year compared to 2025.

@Juzzyzjt Not really - they haven't even got a vaccine for mammals, apart from an experimental one with cattle. Finally, the stomach would destroy any vaccine.

In just one week, the avian flu virus in Australia has gone from birds only to a seal, a fox and now a dolphin. That is the same path it took on every other continent. Thankfully, it has still has not reached our poultry farms and there have been no human cases

A dog would only get infected if it ate a dead or dying bird - so please keep your pet on a leash if you live on the coast. Even more important, cats get infected very easily and it can cause severe illness and death. So, if you live in an affected area, keep your cat in at night. The 50% case fatality rate is greatly exaggerated. More likely to be 5%-10%.

theguardian.com/us-news/2026/a… FDA recommends that updated vaccines target the XFG (Stratus) variant. According to @Mike_Honey_ , XFG is currently accounting for only 10% of sequences in Australia, so interesting to see what TGA do.

@AndrewG76201347 Hi Andrew It can just as easily infect marsupials, if they come into contact with dead birds. Luckily, most of our marsupials are herbivores.

@RealAnitaWhite These new rules are changes to the National Immunisation Program. I have seen no further details of what they mean by severe immunocompromise.

COVID-19 vaccination is about to undergo a major change in Australia. From 1 October, COVID vaccines move to the National Immunisation Program - but funding will no longer be universal. Free vaccination will be limited to: • people aged 65+ • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 50+ • adults with severe immunocompromise That’s a significant policy shift after more than 76 million doses were administered since 2021 under the universal program. The question is whether this narrower approach strikes the right balance between cost, access and preventing severe COVID-19 disease.

@Chookswoma27056 To be discussed with your GP, and based on risk.

Hi Slarti - lots of questions. Any idea how much the vaccine will cost for everyone else? No details yet How often should someone not in the above categories get vaccinated? Advice is people who are not eligible for a funded COVID-19 vaccine may choose to purchase the vaccine privately based on a risk-benefit discussion with their healthcare provider. Is the Pfizer Covid vaccine going to be updated for efficacy, and to remove the heart associated safety risks (myocarditis etc)? Pfizer vaccines may be updated for better variant match, but that is separate from the rare myocarditis/pericarditis risk, which has remained recognized in safety warnings. The heart issues are uncommon, and most cases are mild.

@radofaletic Rado - I have absolute sympathy with anyone harmed by vaccines. Unfortunately, no vaccine is 100% safe. However, the vast majority of adverse events are minor. For those who are severely, harmed, there should be compensation and free treatment.

@jayzcoz @BecWrong Most vaccines don't have sterilising immunity. They are more designed to prevent severe disease. I agree about healthcare workers. We are already seeing staff shortages due to respiratory infections.

@lion_peacock I think this is a backward step. If there is evidence of chronic complications, that is an argument for broader access, not less. Free vaccinations should be available to everyone who wants one.

@peacenicsta @nusi77713710 Well they do reduce transmission a bit. Vaccinated people are (a) less likely to get infected; (b) have reduced infection and, consequently, fewer opportunities to transmit

@Cryptozoologis7 @ermahhgod Sorry - no details of cost yet

Friday epi explainer Misconception: a new study found it, so it must be true. Correction: if something truly has no effect, roughly 1 in 20 careful, honest studies will still come out positive - purely by chance. That's the threshold we work to. Run enough studies on enough things and flukes are guaranteed. And the fluke is the one that gets written up, because null results rarely make it into journals, let alone the news. That's why we wait for the pattern, not the paper. Evidence not vibes.

Hi Hiroshi. A bit of an exaggeration. Some damage is real, for example, coral reefs may have crossed a line. But there's no single "point of no return." Warming is a continuous, not a cliff: every fraction of a degree we stop still counts. The scientists warning about tipping points aren't saying it's hopeless, they are just saying act now.

The data don't really show that. Head-to-head, they come out comparable. One study put Novavax at ~31% protection against infection vs ~similar for mRNA, and the first big real-world Novavax study found "no massive differences." The drop against infection is an Omicron - waning story, and it hits both platforms the same way. What holds up for both is protection against severe disease.