Michael McKee @mckonomy
International Economics & Politics for Bloomberg TV/Radio *Formerly verified and still the same person* same ID for Threads bloomberg.com/personalities/… 38,000 feet above somewhere Joined March 2011-
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As I did stand my watch upon the hill, I looked toward Birnam, and anon methought The Wood began to move.
Listen him. He knows whereof he speaks.
Data is going to be all over the place during this hour. Lots of people jumping to conclusions with little information. Really good hour to go for a walk and breathe.
Election Twitter reactions so far would have suggested the Yankees were a lock to win the World Series. We're half an inning in.
This is worse than the Super Bowl. A whole long day of pre-game analysts saying "this is a close election, we don't know what's gonna happen" before the count starts. But at least with the Super Bowl they play the damn game, it ends, and we can all go to bed...
Watching college football (home in NYC) and every commercial break is stuffed with political ads. Makes me really feel for the poor people in the battleground states who have had to put up with this for months!
But... @BobEUnlimited, the Fed does not "plan" to do that. The dot plot isn't a plan. It's 19 different guesstimates of where policy would be if the data turn out as each of the 19 forecast. WE focus on the median as if it were a plan. The data change, the policy path changes.
The Fed plans to cut 150bps over the next 12m into an economy with strong growth, strong employment and inflation still above mandate. The epitome of "Over Easy" policy. Thread.
Tinfoil hat stuff. Here are the initial release values and current revised values for payroll changes during the Biden administration. Sometimes they are revised up, sometimes they are revised down.
Am deeply disappointed with this take. I suppose no revisions to imprecise initial estimates would serve to improve trust?
The silver lining in weaker-then-expect jobs report is that solid economic growth with modest hiring does point to an ongoing productivity burst. Greater efficiency means higher growth, higher interest rates going forward, potentially higher pay.
The BLS says it "can't quantify" the hurricane impact on October jobs, but 512,000 people reported they were unable to work because of weather; and 1.4 million said they could only find part-time work because of weather. The @federalreserve will look through this.
KEY FACT ABOUT THE JOBS REPORT TODAY: You can trust the numbers. It is not 'manipulated' by the @BLS_gov #jobsreport
Economists have grown more pessimistic about today's jobs figures. Consensus is down to 100,000. But Wall Street is leaning ever more positive: whisper number now up to 140,000. #jobsreport #FED
The Baseball Season is Over.This will be the Sentiment of Many,for the next few Months. #MLB #Baseball #USA🇺🇸 #offseason #OpeningDay
Mookie Betts Kiké Hernandez Ryan Brasier Joe Kelly Michael Kopech Congratulations to the Red Sox on winning the 2024 World Series 👏
…that they cause friction and reducing the inequalities that create barriers. With these things in mind, I’ve done my research and come to the clear conclusion that I’ll be voting for @KamalaHarris and #TimWalz this time around. (3/3)
As an economist I have to appreciate the efficiency of Alex Vesia in doing his job. #WorldSeries
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