Tropical Penguin @jdm_trades

@GavMcCracken Canadians will sell their left kidney to stick up to Trump. It's unbelievable

x.com/jdm_trades/sta… Wrote about Akamai back in June. Inference and edge compute are downstream of agentic and edge AI applications. That's why you are hearing anthropic and open ai suddenly being interested in smaller data centers, not only they are easier to approve and energize (speed to power), they are also the logical next step in the AI trade. There is a company focused solely on edge data centers, who can deploy theri solution in 90 days. CEO just bought shares. This company is trading at ridiculously low valuations in the powered shell provider space at guidedQ4 ARR. Their sales are projected to triple from Q4 sales, and that's the base case.

Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly

10 hours ago

Just YESTERDAY I alerted my re-entry into $AKAM (after publishing my original thesis back on August 12th) citing that the relevance of their technology & infrastructure suite was increasing. Then, today, we get this Anthropic headline. Screenshot below. Talk about timing...

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@incrementalROI @BwieAktien @dr_anjo_phd You have to wonder whether the market wanted FTAI to pay down some of their debt instead of buying back shares, but given the fact that management is confident that FTAI is mispriced today, you are better off buying back shares.

@incrementalROI @BwieAktien @dr_anjo_phd I completely agree with you. But what I've been observing is teh stock reacting to news in the Power space, even though there is zero credit to Power in their current valuation. Just my thoughts here.

Judging by $FTAI price action today, compared to the rest of the sector, it is clear that the market believes FTAI Mod-1 turbines are going to Oracle's data center, contrary to a report linking them to xAI campuses. What is frustrating about this stock is that FTAI Power is essentially "free" on a valuation basis, and yet the stock reacts on negative headlines tied to the sector. No participation in the upside, all participation in the downside. By far the most frustrating stock to own this year. I am long still

Yeah I listened to the conference. What surprised me was the fact that he didn't say the turbines were sold out, a depart from what they were saying back in April, so maybe the street is sniffing something here. But at the same time, business is growing, theri SCI II is a success with an upsize to 6B, Asia expansion. Margins went down but that was a construct of their MRE mix by servicing more established airlines which requires replacements with more cycles (10k). Then you have an approval for a 500M buyback, CEO buying shares, even Druckenmiller started a position. It's hard to be bearish, unless oil stays elevated, which btw, it is not as bad as you imagine for FTAI because it forces airlines to cut costs and look for alternatives like FTAI for servicing their engines.

> Akamai Announces $11.6 Billion Multi-year Agreement with Anthropic to Support Growing Demand Akamai: not a surprise. $AKAM is a big beneficiary of the growing inference compute market. They have a vast network of distributed compute, perfect for inference at scale. I wrote about Akamai in July, my main thesis is that inference and agentic AI is the next big thing and these distributed compute networks will become increasingly important. This is why I am also holding Duos shares ($DUOT) as their edge data centers have the same purpose: to disseminate inference compute across smaller sites (20MW).

Tropical Penguin @jdm_trades

3 months ago

(link follows) New substack post is out (free!). I am continuing my Edge AI trade series. This time, I focused on $AKAM (Akamai Technologies, Inc). Once thought as a cybersecurity and content delivery network company, Akamai is making a big bet in Edge AI inference compute. With

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I know but I dont know whatelse can explain this price action today (and the recent PA to be honest). Just had a nice announcement yesterday with a partnership with GMF, big expansion coming to Asia. Insider buys, rumours of a truce in Iran, 500M buyback... And then I look at FTAI "peers" in adjacent sectors: carriers were mostly green today. Regionals flat to green. MRO green Air and SARO mildly red. HWM green. etc. Just trying to understand this price action, the chart looks horrible.

What is puzzling is that management said, on more than one occasion, that their Mod-1 2027 units were effectively sold out --this was said back in the Spring. We are entering Oct soon and we have basically 50% of these units sold. I would have expected them to have announced fully sold out stock by now with 2028 orders on the way, judging by GEV backlog and others.

@DeepValueBagger NBIS and CRWV are neoclouds while names like CIFR and WULF are powered shell providers. Their business models are different.

> Solaris Energy Infra Price Target Raised to $100.00/Share From $84.00 by Citigroup Still very much long onthis name. My PT was $100-$120. Still on track. Since my original post, Solaris has acquired two businesses: GESA and Omega Foundations Services. They had more insider buys since then, and they are tied to both SpaceX (Stateline) and Meta (Hatchbo). Two premier players in this space.

Tropical Penguin @jdm_trades

3 months ago

New substack post (free) on Solaris Energy (SEI) (link follows). I traded SEI back in Feb when it was in the high 40s and it rallied all the way to the high 70s. I am now jumping back in as I like the chart, management execution, ties to SpaceX xAI (and Anthropic indirectly),

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@KingHeupel I can see 30s again

@Compounding_K Thanks for the follow

More Duos insider buy. This time by CEO Doug Recker, 9.25k shares for a total purchase value of $84.5k...

Tropical Penguin @jdm_trades

3 days ago

Duos Director James Nixon bought 5.7k shares last Friday. Now, my three biggest positions had insider buys in the last 2 months (FTAI, Solaris Energy, and now Duos). FTAI also announced a 500M buyback. $DUOT

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Def legit tech. Not sure it is that differentiated but execution matters enomoursly and Duos seems to have strong execution, starting with their CEO who has decades in the data center space. They are trading very cheaply relative to peers, it is a question of time imo until they see a meaningful rerating (unless markets overall deteriorate). I cant believe they are still flying under the radar after that report about the 20MW data center demand by OAI and Ant. They are so well positioned for this AND the edge AI/inference markets. We just need the markets to stay relatively healthy for a little bit.

FTAI net debt / run rate adjusted EBITDA trend: 2023: 4.1x 2024: 3.9x 2025: 2.6x Q1 2026: 2.3x Q2 2026: 2.7x Most of the debt is fixed rate. Management 2026 is guiding ~1.2B adj FCF and 878M after SCI II and Power investments (which already includes the debt servicing). Summarizing, for 3.5B debt, FTAI has: 2.7x net leverage as per Q2 ~5.7x EBITDA/net-interest coverage based on 2026 guidance no 2026/27 bond maturities 2.025B undrawn revolver 878M guided FCF after growth initiatives. Doesn't look like a company in any financial distress to me. If anything, it is improving nicely. I expect FTAI to comfortably surpass their lowed end EBITDA guidance whcih should be well over 1B. Their deb is very manageable and their business generate enough FCF to comfortably pay the notes at maturity while the business grow.

Reminder

Tropical Penguin @jdm_trades

6 months ago

I don't care insiders sold millions in shares, I don't care about Claude Managed Agents announcement... FSLY and NET are two of the biggest beneficiaries of AI agentic revolution. They are literally the tollbooth of AI agents. If AI agent workloads grow exponentially, so does the

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@GrumpierBTDay @gofallingknife I wrote about NVEC early July on my substack, two angles: data centers and robotics, could be big. tropicalpenguin.substack.com/p/nve-corporat…

@MOIP4030 > I typically don’t put too much weight on these First time insider buy, on the open market is a genuine buy signal IMO. Not a guarantee (nothing is) though.

Duos Director James Nixon bought 5.7k shares last Friday. Now, my three biggest positions had insider buys in the last 2 months (FTAI, Solaris Energy, and now Duos). FTAI also announced a 500M buyback. $DUOT

@majgeoinvesting Thanks for the insight. RFIL is on my watchlist, it's been since Feb this year, Imissed the Apr run, but I am wathching it like a hawk. Like this name a lot.