Whizard @WhizardData
Sports Betting Originator 🧠 | +EV is cool, but bottom up is way cooler | Models all hand built | Open to work whizard.buildr.bet Joined November 2021-
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@Michael90621620 God for bid guy who spends 100s of hours on this a week wants some love
So close to a 8-0 start to the week.... Houstons last touchdown killed it. Still a great start. Have about 200u on the board for the slate today.... lets have a day. 🧠
25 Likes ill release my favorite play of the day.
@Spencer64007081 176u spread out across 120ish bets, but a lot of them are correlated as you can see above, so really more like 40 bets.
Also only 2 points off projecting this game perfectly lol
Nice little 3-0, +5u start to the CFB week. 🧠
@Luiscedanoz Will have some for week 3 of NFL when everything is fully chugging. Not as of right now.
Don’t think I could physically describe how much Prediction Markets have changed betting for me…. 🧠 Made for originators….
WNBA is back tomorrow (yes it still exists)... model has been posted for Thursdays games. Been a great season so far. Back on the grind.
@incognitobagg May do some videos showing how I use my fair prices to go through the board at the start of each week. Also maybe some conceptual modeling tutorials, obviously nobody codes anymore.
A little bit lost on content for you guys: Do we want more public plays from the model? more origination model tutorials? more conceptual betting stuff? Account started as pure handicapping, but as we have transitioned more into originating giving out 1 pick a day goes pretty hard against what it means to originate prices. We will still have plenty of public plays out there, but wanted to hear if anyone had any suggestions?
Totally, gonna get back to giving out the public plays. On your other point I agree, it is a lot for the casual bettor just looking for some good value plays. Point of originating it to find the fair value on every bet on the board, so there's just a shit ton of data. I personally mix my own head with the models when choosing what to bet and whats clear the model if off a little bit. Bit of a catch 22 for what my strategy has evolved into.
@nickolasfranc13 Mine. All hand built by me.
@MLParker75639 No, if a QB is hit while targeting a pass catcher there is never intentional grounding while they are hit in throwing motion.
Do not understand the uproar here.... This happens every week with intentional grounding, yet hundreds of football fans say they have never seen that before. If the QB is hit during the throwing motion and his aim gets altered by the hit, then it is an incomplete pass with no intentional grounding. Only argument for this play being incorrect is that he did not complete the throwing motion and fumbled... which its pretty clear he still threw the ball.
just seeing this and wtf is this explanation??? seen hundreds of QBs throw backwards and it’s a fumble but because he “intended” to throw it forward it’s not? when was this rule changed???
This week is the FIRST official FULL week for our CFB origination model: - Every game mainline fair value pricing - Fair value for team total lines - recommend +EV bets with staking size 1278-1028 · 55.4% wins · +10% ROI over last 5 years.🧠
I thought this Football thing was supposed to be hard. 🧠
People trying to market make NFL for the first time yesterday:
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