Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

Currently searching global public markets for alpha. Not investment advice. underlyingvalue.substack.com Joined February 2012

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

15 hours ago

Excited for my upcoming profiles that will be shared on my sub in the months to come. These are companies that are far off the beaten path. International, most are sub-$100M market cap and highly profitable (sub-3x earnings in many cases) with a catalyst. If I don't own them, I don't write about them.

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

2 days ago

Who are the best investors consistently pitching stuff sub-$100M market cap? The inefficiencies seem to be at a different scale in this universe imo.

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

2 days ago

@SleepwellCap Who is the best broker to use?

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

4 days ago

Since profiling less than a month ago, the oil refiner is up over 100% and the producer is up over 10%. Both names remain holdings with further upside potential, in my opinion. Current run rate sub-1x for the refiner, 2x for the producer.

Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

4 weeks ago

Least expensive oil producer thesis is playing out: - Trades at 8x EV/E this QUARTER (ended June) - FY Production guided to increase 15-20% - FY CapEx guided to decrease 25% I have them earning current EV in FCF at $75-80 Brent over the next two years.

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

5 days ago

This is incredible. Things like this are what have made America great.

Gagan Biyani 🏛 @gaganbiyani

5 days ago

Today, we’re launching an ambitious new school called The Horowitz Andreessen Academy. Based in San Francisco, The Academy serves the most promising young high school graduates. We think this can be an elite institution that attracts top tier talent. One that prepares students

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

5 days ago

@GreatWinfield Agreed. A bit worried in a higher interest rate enviroment. The move to EV should continue

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

5 days ago

One of mine remains SAF. Examples of companies I'm invested in are iOCO and Argent (both with involvement from a great allocator, Rhys Summerton).

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

5 days ago

In which markets are you finding the best small cap opportunities? Not just cheap valuations, but paired with good governance, capital allocation and growth prospects.

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

6 days ago

@Ron284Ron The next two quarters are seasonally the worst, too.

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

a week ago

@eriksen_tim Confirm they cleared my dividend 9/10

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

a week ago

@eriksen_tim I had it across multiple and collected. Who are you using?

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

2 weeks ago

Parex ($PXT.TO): Average production of 45K in Q1, 56K in Q2 and guided to mid-80s in Q3 and ~90K in Q4. Still not fully appreciated by the market imo.

Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

3 weeks ago

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

2 weeks ago

Oil & gas: Despite recent run-ups, I still think this sector remains ripe with great investment candidates. I'm investing in inexpensive investments (in some case sub-1x earnings), close to where the supply/demand imbalances are most severe.

Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

3 months ago

Oil & gas is a great risk/reward in my opinion. My approach: a basket of sector investments diversified across geography and business model rather than one concentrated bet. Take the four producers we own: Best yield: A mature producer I expect to return ~60% (!) of its market

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

2 weeks ago

Interest rates are the lifeblood of asset values. In a rising IR environment, a great balance sheet goes from nice to have to must have.

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

3 weeks ago

Aimia ($AIM.TO) started trading in London today. I think three targets stand out as likely buyout targets. Each is outlined in my updated sub, two are investments. I'll be surprised if they do not move on their first buyout under Rhys shortly.

Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

3 months ago

Aimia (AIM.TO) is cleaned up and ready to acquire. Based on the companies outlined during their AGM in addition to some recent actions taken, I think two of these are now their most likely targets. Updated article here: underlyingvalue.substack.com/p/aimia-tsx-ai…

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

3 weeks ago

@CayucosCapital Tight float. There has been front running pre-announcements in the recent past. Valuation makes 0 sense here on what’s public imo

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

3 weeks ago

In evaluating an investment, too much focus is spent on growth versus cost management and capital allocation. Especially in the micro-cap world, many companies are fast and loose with cash when they are growing. If there is not rigorous management of the expense line - that top-line expansion isn't going to ever find its way into your pocket.

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

3 weeks ago

Parex Resources ($PRX.TO) is the largest independent oil producer in Colombia. They acquired Frontera, which increases production ~75% without diluting shareholders. Furthermore, production is set to increase another ~10% as they execute to a farm-in agreement with Ecopetrol that is expected in the next 45 days. All production is unhedged, selling at a small differential to Bent. With a long history of shareholder friendly actions (buybacks, dividends and attractive acquisitions), I think it remains an attractive entry point. Overview in addition to a producer that has turned into a top 3 investment here: underlyingvalue.substack.com/p/the-least-ex…

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

4 weeks ago

@ValueInvestor94 $CZBS

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Andrew Pogue @UnderlyingValue

4 weeks ago

Pason Systems ($PSI.TO) may get taken out. Birch Hill Equity Partners (Canadian PE) took down a 7.4M-share block at C$14.00 - doubling its stake from 9.1% to 18.7%. Now just under Canada's 20% mandatory takeover-bid threshold. The business is a toll booth on land drilling: EDRs on ~65% of US rigs, ~85% in Canada, ~95% in Australia. 99.99% uptime. NOV's Totco has discounted 30-40% for two decades and still can't take share. Record revenue per industry day (C$1,078) in Q2 despite a soft rig count. Valuation: ~C$1.2B market cap, C$68M cash, zero debt, roughly 7x EV/EBITDA, 3.5% dividend, still gushing cash (C$33.5M op cash flow in Q2 alone).