Tipswatch @TipsWatch
Talking about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, plus I Bonds and Treasurys in general, on the https://t.co/eKll4hxO6k site, since March 2011. tipswatch.com Joined October 2013-
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Financial expert: "TIPS are for losers." Really? Even with real yields at nearly two-decade highs? It all depends on your commitment to hold to maturity. My analysis: tipswatch.com/2026/10/11/tip…
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I am saying this right now: I don't want Mark Zuckerburg or Elon Musk anywhere near my money. finance.yahoo.com/personal-finan…
Also today, reopening auction of 30-year Treasury bond: High yield of 5.618%, up from 5.308% last month. "When-issued" prediction was 5.617%, so demand was probably acceptable.
Today's T-bill auction results: 4-week, investment rate of 4.048%, up from 3.956% last week. 8-week, investment rate of 4.060%, up from 4.071% last week. Pretty tame results.
Some important points here. A surge in global interest rates could expose and destroy "big risks" being taken in the financial world. And then ... "poof." finance.yahoo.com/markets/articl…
Also today, reopening auction of 10-year Treasury note: High yield of 5.300%, up from 4.834% last month. Huge move higher, but demand looked fine.
Today's T-bill auction result: 17-week, investment rate of 4.219%, down from 4.230% last week.
Tipswatch retweeted
New from the New York Fed: "By February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 pp to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly." About one quarter of every point in higher tariff rates shows up in consumer prices within one year. • A 10% across-the-board tariff yields a 2.6% rise in consumer goods prices after one year. • About two thirds of the increase comes from pricier imports, which get passed through quickly. • Another third comes from U.S. made goods, as producers face higher input costs and less import competition. This takes longer, about 6-12 months, to filter through.
How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices? By Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein nyfed.org/4j2HHcN
Today's T-bill auction results: 13-week, investment rate of 4.149%, down from 4.211% last week. 26-week, investment rate of 4.314%, down from 4.441% last week. Trend is indicating Fed on hold for October.
Tipswatch retweeted
Allianz: US real disposable income is flat in the last 15 months
@NickTimiraos Bessent does have superior information, obviously. And that means he often knows what he is saying isn’t true.
@JustinWolfers @svaneksmith "But we have to pay more to attract top talent," says the company with six consecutive quarters of declining revenue.
@MikeZaccardi Rebalancing, while getting great yields. A lot better than the QE days of 0.5% yields.
President Trump just opened the Pandora's box of inflation, by suggesting "certain levels of inflation" could pay off U.S. debt very rapidly. This is a dangerous statement. My analysis: tipswatch.com/2026/10/04/tru…
Trump said the thing a president "DOES NOT SAY." wsj.com/livecoverage/s…
Seems to indicate: Fed will hold rates steady at October meeting? But one very important inflation report is coming Oct. 14, and it may not be pretty.
An all around weak -- but not tragic -- payrolls report for September. +29k jobs created, about 60k below expectations. Revisions made both July and August look weaker, too. Over the past 3 months, we've an average of a mere +17k per month.
Today's T-bill auction results: 4-week, investment rate of 3.956%, up from 3.915% last week. 8-week, investment rate of 4.071%, same as last week.
@Claudia_Sahm I’m best friends with FRED. Very useful
Ken Tumin @KenTumin
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