The Numbers Desk @TheNumbersDesk
Sports through the numbers. 📊 Data-driven insights for CFB, NFL, NBA, MLB & more. Bet smarter. Not harder. fieldwork-omega.vercel.app Joined April 2024-
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JAX at DEN: the run game · DEN -3, O/U 45.5 JAX runs for 127 a game (#9 in NFL), 4.4 per carry. DEN allows 197 rushing yards a game (#31). DEN runs for 59 (#28), 3.9 per carry. JAX allows 67 (#11).
MIA at SF: the market · SF -13.5, O/U 44.5 MIA 2026: 0-1 (0%) ATS, 0-1 O/U SF 2026: 1-0 (100%) ATS, 0-1 O/U Since 2025: MIA 5-7 (42%) ATS as a dog · SF 10-2 (83%) as a favorite Home/road: SF 4-4 (50%) at home · MIA 3-6 (33%) on the road
CFB points per game allowed through Week 2 Best defenses (lower is better) 1. South Carolina 0.0 2. Penn State 4.5 3. Miami 6.0 4. Iowa 6.5 5. Notre Dame 6.5 6. New Mexico 7.0 7. Kansas State 7.0 8. Virginia 8.0
Florida at Auburn: the market · Florida -2.5, O/U 53.5 Florida 2026: 1-1 (50%) ATS, 1-1 O/U Auburn 2026: 1-1 (50%) ATS, 0-2 O/U Since 2025: Florida 2-4 (33%) ATS as a favorite · Auburn 2-4-1 (33%) as a dog Home/road: Auburn 2-6-1 (25%) at home · Florida 1-4 (20%) on the road
NFL points per game through Week 1 Best offenses 1. CHI 59.0 2. BAL 41.0 3. MIN 39.0 4. CAR 37.0 5. BUF 36.0 6. JAX 34.0 7. CIN 33.0 8. DET 31.0
JAX at DEN: the pass game · DEN -3, O/U 45.5 JAX throws for 236 a game (#11 in NFL), 9.4 per pass play. DEN allows 199 passing yards a game (#10). DEN throws for 118 (last), 3.4 per pass play. JAX allows 205 (#12).
CFB points per game through Week 2 Best offenses 1. Georgia 70.0 2. Florida 66.0 3. South Carolina 57.0 4. Nebraska 52.5 5. Indiana 52.0 6. Mississippi State 50.0 7. Texas A&M 49.0 8. Nevada 49.0
CFB power ratings through Week 3 Net EPA/play, opponent-adjusted, garbage time removed 1. Georgia +0.60 2. BYU +0.54 3. Notre Dame +0.51 4. Mississippi State +0.51 5. Nebraska +0.50 6. Alabama +0.48 7. Penn State +0.43 8. Tennessee +0.38 9. Florida +0.36 10. Utah +0.34
MIA at SF: the run game · SF -13.5, O/U 44.5 MIA runs for 35 a game (last in NFL), 2.3 per carry. SF allows 114 rushing yards a game (#22). SF runs for 148 (#6), 5.3 per carry. MIA allows 133 (#25).
DET at BUF: the market · BUF -4.5, O/U 54.5 DET 2026: 0-1 (0%) ATS, 1-0 O/U BUF 2026: 1-0 (100%) ATS, 1-0 O/U Since 2025: DET 2-4 (33%) ATS as a dog · BUF 7-9 (44%) as a favorite Home/road: BUF 4-5 (44%) at home · DET 4-5 (44%) on the road
Florida at Auburn: the run game · Florida -2.5, O/U 53.5 Florida runs for 282 a game (#6 in CFB), 7.0 per carry. Auburn allows 97 rushing yards a game (#25). Auburn runs for 239 (#12), 5.7 per carry. Florida allows 134 (#57).
BYU at Colorado State: the market · BYU -17.5, O/U 52.5 BYU 2026: 2-0 (100%) ATS, 1-1 O/U Colorado State 2026: 2-0 (100%) ATS, 2-0 O/U Since 2025: BYU 10-2 (83%) ATS as a favorite · Colorado State 4-5 (44%) as a dog
NFL plays per game through Week 1 Best offenses 1. NO 88.0 2. HOU 79.0 3. DET 77.0 4. CHI 75.0 5. ARI 72.0 6. NE 71.0 7. WAS 69.0 8. CAR 68.0
CFB Week 3 by the numbers Favorites 27-28-2 ATS · home teams 26-29-2 · overs 33-24 Biggest cover: Northwestern by 30.5 vs Colorado (Northwestern -3.5) Most yards: Texas State 653 (337 rushing, 316 passing) vs North Texas
MIA at SF: the pass game · SF -13.5, O/U 44.5 MIA throws for 224 a game (#16 in NFL), 5.6 per pass play. SF allows 177 passing yards a game (#7). SF throws for 231 (#12), 6.2 per pass play. MIA allows 163 (#6).
CFB plays per game through Week 2 Best offenses 1. Baylor 96.0 2. LSU 89.0 3. Virginia Tech 85.0 4. Oklahoma State 84.5 5. Syracuse 83.0 6. Florida Atlantic 81.0 7. Purdue 81.0 8. Auburn 78.0
Bijan Robinson had 90 receiving yards on 8 catches in Week 1. CAR allows 320 passing yards a game, 27th of 32 in the NFL against the pass. FanDuel: 42.5. Projection 55. Form and matchup both say over. CAR at ATL · CAR -2.5
Jaylin Lucas has gone for 3 and 214 rushing yards over his last 2 games (109 a game, 15.5 a carry). Kansas State allows 120 rushing yards a game, 46th in FBS against the run. FanDuel: 38.5. Projection 61 (cleared it 1 of 2). The form says over.
Rodney Fields Jr. has gone for 101 and 105 rushing yards over his last 2 games (103 a game, 7.6 a carry). Tulane allows 218 rushing yards a game, 116th of 137 in FBS against the run. FanDuel: 88.5. Projection 100 (cleared it 2 of 2). Form and matchup both say over.
Ashton Jeanty went for 102 rushing yards on 23 carries in Week 1 (4.4 a carry). LAC allows 108 rushing yards a game, 20th in the NFL against the run. FanDuel: 65.5. Projection 73. No edge either way; the game script decides. LV at LAC · LAC -7
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