Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM."
I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus.
And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi.
Just for reference:
For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones.
For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme
With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets."
We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings.
So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026.
Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
Goldman Sachs in their recent note upgraded their global optical module market forecast to:
- $67.7 billion (+33% revision) for 2026
- $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027
- $148.5 billion (+115% revision) for 2028
For $NVDA Rubin Ultra, GS increased its modeled optical
@InvestifyDaily Pretty cheap on PEG and EML lasers are a bottleneck and pretty tough to scale because of the Inp shortage, this could be more severe than memory. Even the $LITE CEO is saying it.
I prefer $COHR a lot over $LITE because it’s better vertically integrated and cheaper on any metric
@johnkrichards That’s totally fair. Just wanted to let you know in case you don’t want people to think that :)
I think the worst of the decline is over.
I compared it to Auntea Jenny (2589.HK) a lot. It was between these two for me, and closings are very low for Chagee aswell
@MikeFritzell How about now? Even more of a head scratcher right?
Well for me everything looks attractive here. Juicy 8% dividend too. I put 20% of my portfolio last week
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