PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

Tracking the companies, deals, and infrastructure shaping US prediction markets. FCMs | IBs | DCMs | DCOs | Partnerships PredictionMarketPulse.com Philadelphia, PA Joined March 2026

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

2 days ago

'@ProphetX (via Milbank) met CFTC staff on 9/29 to discuss its comments on the prediction markets NPRM, two months after comments closed. Its letter backed the proposal and asked for 4(c) class exemptions, bans on six contract types and a retail PM office. regulations.gov/comment/CFTC-2…

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

2 days ago

Another incentive program update: @Polymarket filed changes with the CFTC to amend its market maker program (FKA 2026 Market Maker Program), eff. ~10/15. Rebates are a % of the taker fees charged on a maker's qualifying fills, under an aggregate monthly cap. Eligible markets are limited to sports, crypto prices and politics; any new categories will require a new submission to the CFTC. A multiplier based on when a fill occurs is dropped. cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

2 days ago

On 10/1, a new Sports Event Contract Market Maker Incentive Program was submitted by @OG_com Markets (NADEX/CDNA). The submission appeared this morning on the CFTC's website. While most of the program details are redacted, the Program is comprised of two independently assessed market maker incentives: (i) a Designated Market Maker incentives for designated sports event markets, subject to specified pre-game and live depth and uptime requirements; and (ii) Combo incentives requiring a Market Maker to achieve certain obligations on executed combo contracts in a weekly review period. Effective 10/16/2026, participants must be market makers. cftc.gov/filings/orgrul…

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Kellan Grenier @kellangrenier

3 days ago

US-regulated prediction markets just did over $20B in a single week. Two years ago, the same week was ~$5M. Election week 2024 - the moment many called the top - was $750M, and none of it was sports. Trailing 52 weeks: over $290B, ~85% of it sports. 🧵

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

5 days ago

On 9/14, Jump Trading sent its Head of Policy and Director of Policy & Govt Affairs to the CFTC to discuss the agency's rulemaking on affiliated market makers (comments closing 11:59 PM ET on 10/5). Just a few days before Citadel met with the CFTC (which was first reported by @dan_bernstein_ ). regulations.gov/comment/CFTC-2…

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

a week ago

@OG_com (NADEX) asked the CFTC today to approve rules for perpetual single-stock futures: cash-settled, no expiry, 1-share contracts, 24/5 trading, and a funding rate paid between longs and shorts. NADEX filed with the SEC 9/14 to register as an exchange for security futures, which under the Exchange Act is effective on filing. CFTC filing: cftc.gov/IndustryOversi… SEC filing: sec.gov/files/rules/ot…

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

2 weeks ago

In its conflicts-of-interest analysis, DKeX says the change "will reduce rebate expense and result in the collection of the generally applicable Combination Contract Maker Fee." It adds that "those financial effects do not displace the regulatory basis for the decision."

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

2 weeks ago

Today DKeX (@DKPredictions) filed to end its combos market maker rebates and maker fee waiver, from Oct 7. The stated reason: participating firms "would be profitable on Combination Contracts even before application of those incentives." DKeX Submission #26-28 cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

2 weeks ago

Today CFTC staff defined "Mention Markets": will a named person say a word, show up, shake a hand. DMO staff may view them as presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation under Core Principle 3 and expect a heightened showing on materiality, scrutiny, insider controls. No. 26-27 cftc.gov/csl/26-27/down…

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

2 weeks ago

'@coinbase has a new DCO filing that hit the CFTC website today backdated to 11/14/2025. Per the exhibits: -Fully collateralized -Would clear for DCMs and SEFs that agree to its rules -Direct clearing access, plus FCM customers cftc.gov/IndustryOversi… This appears to be the application The Clearing Company filed in Nov 2025 (but never appeared on the CFTC site), pitched as a stablecoin-native clearinghouse for prediction markets. Coinbase announced the acquisition of the Clearing Company in December 2025. The exhibits show it renamed and 100% under Coinbase Global. They name no products.

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

3 weeks ago

New NFA filing: Hypestrat Markets LLC (NFA ID 0581525) filed as a pending Futures Commission Merchant on 9/14/26. Address is 477 Madison Ave 22F, NYC — same as Hyperliquid Strategies (@HyperliquidX ) HQ.

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PredictionMarketPulse @PredMP

3 weeks ago

Per an update from the NFA this morning, the social casino operator, @playongains, was approved for their Introducing Broker and Swap Firm registrations on 9/10. PMP has no tracked partnerships to FCMs/DCMs, but we would expect an announcement soon. nfa.futures.org/BasicNet/basic…