Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

Tool-Assisted Melee content creator & record holder・DM or https://t.co/sNuwHQ8pj3 to 💬・views=mine youtube.com/PracticalTAS Joined November 2015

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

2 hours ago

@SoulSSBU You after going to one (1) local:

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

15 hours ago

@ZeeStrup @AmazionCs @Manu_qt @e3tcg Yeah as long as IDs are allowed, I would expect X-1-1 to most often be the minimum needed for asymmetrical cut if Riftbound implemented it

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a day ago

If you want to play around with the sim yourself, you can find it at avnestico.com/swiss. (5/4)

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However, that didn't happen. They paired into each other but played their matches out. The odds of an X-1-2 cut immediately dropped to 0%. Of these 4 players, all quite likely to dodge assym entirely if they had ID'd twice, 1 failed to make cut and 1 lost in assym. (4/4)

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a day ago

I've started tracking how my simulator pans out against the actual results of 2027's regionals. Below are the results so far. Baltimore Juniors might stand out. It had a 76% chance of 7-1-2 cut prior to the tournament, but ended up with a 7-2-1 cut. (1/4)

Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

Good Morning Baltimore! Today is the first regional championship of the 2027 Pokemon season. My simulator gives the masters division's 3123 players a 67% chance of an X-1-2 cut, for now. I've also built a small webpage to present my data, check it out! avnestico.com/swiss/

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a day ago

@tall_alan @Ian__Robb Probably the same guy, statistically

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

5 days ago

@nicole_crouty @JoeMGardy Mine didn’t reset until I uninstalled and reinstalled, they said some people would have to do that

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

@GTM5471 @LudwigAhgren I volunteer for sign clip if there’s an SM64 relay

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

@slime_machine Short answer yes long answer they’ve been doing it for so long with no pushback besides strongly worded statements that they’re pretty sure copyright law simply doesn’t apply to them and they’re probably right

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

@FemShepFGC @arJunebug

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

@SticksPTCG Excellent to hear the Melee to PTCG pipeline goes both ways

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

@HyakutakeTouka These all read as fake to me idk

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

UPDATE: Simulating forward from the actual day 1 results, Baltimore Masters division X-1-2 cut odds have dropped slightly to ~58% assuming the global tie rate of 15% holds for day 2. Seniors (364 players) is looking at ~30% odds, and Juniors (233 players) is up at ~89%.

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

You can now see for yourself how changing the global tie rate and 5-2-0 ID rate can have a drastic impact on the top cut probability. If the tie rate drops to 11%, the probability of an X-1-2 cut jumps all the way up to 97%! (Also, small changes to the curves may happen later)

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

4 months ago

Hi Pokemon TCG Twitter, I'm PracticalTAS and today I'm here to tell you why you might not want to Intentionally Draw at 5-2-0

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

@ferrari77_PM @DrGrin_ oh that's very interesting. looks like it's not general ECB centre for the side-b since cake's position is different in different clips, but I can believe it pulls to hitbox centre.

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

@kazambolt Thanks, I'll look into it

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

@ferrari77_PM @DrGrin_ It depends on spacing. You can also slow down the video and see Cake change his DI midway through the move. The crazy one is the 3rd clip because he recognized that he was inside enough that DI up avoids the follow-up fair.

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Andrew Nestico @PracticalTAS

a week ago

@kazambolt Ah fair, I'll have to see whether there's any value-add I can provide over limitless for smaller events. Do you have specific examples of how their tool can be improved?