Position Journal @PositionJournal

@SawyerMerritt This makes no sense, yeah I said it

“Earlier this month, a study led by Babak Orandi at New York University found that 9.3 per cent of children in the US aged 8 to 11 with obesity but without diabetes are being prescribed GLP-1 medications like semaglutide (Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Zepbound) – up from 0.03 per cent in 2019.” Insanity. It’s apparent the GLP business is booming but this is just borderline medical malpractice. Prescribe exercise and less eating of terrible foods. Crazy

Every auto maker is screwed if that happens, including Rivian. In the last twenty years China subsidized their auto industry north of $200B for the build out and they now have a supply chain that is optimized for their auto manufacturing. They will continue to do so unless everything is mandated to be manufactured here, in other words, they can’t ship parts from China just to assemble in US and slap on a “built in US”, they need to buy every part and component in the US, including labor. US cannot compete given we sell EVs within 50-60K range while they sell within 25-30K. We compete domestically only because of national restrictions

@StockSavvyShay Tech existed for years (Pactum AI), about time. None of this is revolutionary, just housekeeping to keep up competitively

@amitisinvesting Things are great, also what Warsh said. Market dynamics are too fast and volatile to make any predictions though. No single indicator exists that reliably predicts a specific event. All this to say: buy and hold (or get left behind)

@firstadopter Agents can use crypto, including stablecoins to pay for the things that you need, including inference. Total word salad, but above is the translation

I do see some startups that post on X showcasing they’ve onboarded - but i wish there was a lot more customer success focus from Coinbase. Sponsor an engineering conference or event, or sponsor a competition by inviting bright builders and start getting your name out there. The go to market strategy for me by Coinbase is lacking

>crypto bear market no longer weighing down $COIN although tight coupling still exists, good. >x402 transaction volume since earnings grew 61% month over month (MoM) to 30.4M while USD traded doubled from 635K to $1.3M This is good, but FAR too early for it to be meaningful in any way. The caveat is the agentic volume needs to 10x from here via x402 for a natural network effect to start forming and snowballing. This means marketing, education, conferences and niche customer segment focus to provide to the developers and ordinary users the value of agentic transactions (in other words less jokes and more education like your “what can agents buy?” article @coinbase !) Finally, the nuance in why the transaction volume is so low is because agents are trading in cents for per use access. For example, a researcher could enable the agent to crawl the web for high quality paywalled material and pay one time for each of them. The real volume picks up when a large enterprise launches an external facing product that runs through x402

Position Journal @PositionJournal

2 months ago

Now for $COIN The crypto bear market continues to weigh down revenue and profitability, but the pivot of Coinbase enabling the agentic and digital economy continues to scale. -Stablecoin transaction volume on Base is up 7x year over year -Over 90% of agentic stablecoin

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@peytonroym We shall see

My biggest bet in $RIVN, even beyond the ambitious autonomy goals, is their mind robotics spin-out. Historically, manufacturing has relied on "classical" automation which are rigid, robots controlled by fixed logic (PLC) that perform repetitive, high-speed tasks but lack the ability to handle variation or make decisions. The next frontier is advanced industrial robotics, which through focus on dexterity and reasoning, develops robots with human-like skills and the cognitive ability to reason through tasks that require flexibility. These robots would have generative AI integration through both neural networks and world models that allow it to process data through their real world environment. In other words, they'd learn just like the new hire would learn, on the spot and through interaction. Why the future of robotics matters is that to remain competitive, manufacturers must address labor constraints (3.8M workers needed by 2033) by automating tasks that are currently too complex or unpredictable for old-school robots. This is where RJ's comment on either i) adapt or ii) lose market share comes into play yet again. Mind Robotics includes moving beyond simple "pick and place" tasks to manipulating soft goods (carpet, headliners) and wiring harnesses, which often require force feedback and high dexterity. So then manufacturers, once they can't fill the roles, are faced with a strategic dilemma do you build or buy? They will need to decide if they possess the internal expertise to develop these sophisticated AI-based robotics systems or if they must look to specialized partners to fill that capability gap which is precisely the strategy behind Mind Robotics Potential future customers of Mind Robotics: >Rivian (exists, massive data flywheel that other robotics companies lack) >Lockheed and Boeing still route harnesses and drive fasteners by hand in high-mix bays. >Anduril builds short-run defense hardware that changes mid-program to match the operator and the battlefield. >Caterpillar and Deere run mixed models with long hose and wire paths that will not sit in a fixture.

Position Journal @PositionJournal

4 months ago

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@Decryptedlite In other words a significant portion of a exciting privately owned venture

@CultusPater 100% we need that validation — ideally I want to see a second customer by year end 2027 and some form of impact on Rivian balance sheet sometime next year too

@RivianRay @wrkbzs Nebius and ClickHouse

It going to be very uncomfortable for institutions when privately owned Mind Robotics re values from 3B to 10-15B and then compare that against Rivians 22B market cap. Similar thing happened to another holding of mine, their subsidiary grew aggressively and in early days no one baked it into the parent company’s stock price

I actually think Mind Robotics (MR) is super under appreciated. Specifically because the most important that a robot needs to actually be useful and that no one is willing to give up is data. Rivian will have MR directly integrated with their plant and feeding off every change and data point that is ongoing in the production line. The training would likely be unlimited access to how wires are routed, how parts are placed, how bolts are fastened and every work that needs hands will be provided freely and in enormous quantities because MR and Rivian are almost one and the same, minimal competitive clause or tension. Figure AI is also doing direct work on plants and probably has far more robots but i do think Rivians data flywheel will be stronger vs the BMW plants Figure is working on, although I do think Figure is a very serious competitor. my bet is MR will catch up and progress further but to validate it requires real world products to be shipped and a new customer to be signed which I haven’t seen yet

@RivianRay I imagined it’ll be a while until they IPO but I share the sentiment :)

@KevinMelnuk It is frustrating indeed

@amitisinvesting Where have I heard this before? T-minus 10 minutes until we hear the total opposite from Iranian news agency