Mike Shell | Asymmetry® @MikeWShell
Investment manager of ASYMMETRY® | Managed Portfolios for asymmetric risk/reward. Edge, trend, momentum, convexity, optionality, flows, sentiment, volatility. shell-capital.com Knoxville, Tennessee Joined April 2009-
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Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Nothing says college football culture quite like the Vol Navy on a Saturday in Knoxville. ⛵️🍊 From houseboats to Bama rivalries, Tennessee fans came ready.
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@EconstratPB sounds like: long $LTPZ
@EricBalchunas "it takes years to get this... you guys will get there one day"
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
I don't need to know what's going to happen next. I need to know what I'm going to do when it happens.
@koldhamkc @TheExitGuy411 The more we mess around, the more we 'find out' :)
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
The market is structurally fragile right now. Participation is narrow- classic late-cycle. Hedge funds are positioned defensive with low net leverage. And overall valuations are extreme. Until breadth snaps back hard and the broader index starts leading the mega-caps, being too long at these levels offers relatively poor asymmetry.
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
One big issue: The starting point matters. Ibbotson’s Supply-Side model reminds us why starting points matter: that 10.1% return since 1926 relied on a 5.3% starting yield and 10x P/E. Today’s starting line (1.3% yield, 27x P/E) means the next 15–20 years will look very different from the last 100.
@koldhamkc @TheExitGuy411 Mess around, find out.
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Neyland Stadium is the first College Football stadium to ever receive a flyover from Air Force One. Other sporting events include the Daytona 500, and Northwest Stadium for the Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders.
Holy shit. Air Force One flyover. ELECTRIC.
@Lee_Lichterman Lost by 3 to #1. Late score, onside kick, Hail Mary on the last play. The potential was real. You’re resulting: judging the cheer by the final score instead of the chance they had.
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
So proud of this team and this university! Greatest atmosphere in college football!🏈 🍊 #VFL
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Johnny Knoxville is ready for GameDay ... maybe a little TOO ready 😂
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
"Let's let it rip." The ole gunslinger's still got it 🎯
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Air Force One just flew over Neyland Stadium in pre-game
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Big Orange vs. Burnt Orange. @CollegeGameDay is LIVE from Rocky Top! 📺 ESPN 📲 1tn.co/4d91fbH
@DDBlakeFischer @jasonzweigwsj @grok 1926 wasn’t the cliff. 1929 was. Dow went from ~160 in ’26 to 381 in Sept ’29. It doubled first. Then the crash. The 10% already includes all of it. They paid ~10x and a 5% yield at the time. Today is mid-20s trailing, CAPE ~41. 1932 earnings don’t change what 1926 cost.
@DDBlakeFischer @jasonzweigwsj @grok 1926 wasn’t 30x. That’s the 1926 price on 1932 earnings. At the time it was ~10x and a 5% yield. The 10% century return already includes the Depression. 20x today is an estimate. Trailing is still mid-20s and CAPE is ~41. That’s not cheaper.
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