Maximum @MaximumLib

Joined September 2026

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Maximum @MaximumLib

3 hours ago

@Socdem_Michael I think Dems are being underestimated in Maine, overestimated in the Midwest. Southern states I think the polling is probably about accurate

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Kansas is weird because it's so Dem trending, I think it could be different from Iowa/Ohio. I don't doubt R's are being underestimated in the rural, western half of the state, but Dems actually have substantial urban pickup opportunities that don't exist in the other states.

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Maximum @MaximumLib

5 hours ago

Polls are very clearly underestimating R's in the midwest. I still think the Dems have a very good night, but I still consider Ohio a tossup, and Iowa lean R. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Sand wins by less than Hinson

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Maximum @MaximumLib

22 hours ago

Dems control 10/14 swing senate seats!! It's embarassing the GOP isn't pushing 60 senators

drew @ImNotOwned

a day ago

sorry but no, the gop does not do that. we are extremely lucky that the gop primary base has no interest in electability. the gop controls significantly fewer senate seats than you would expect

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drew @ImNotOwned

2 days ago

To barely control the senate with 51 seats, we need to win Trump +13% states. To be able to have 60 votes we need to win +23% Trump states. To get 60, republicans need to win Harris +6% states. This discrepancy does not get discussed enough.

Jamesetta Williams 💕 @jamesetta_w

2 days ago

Anyone else upset that Democrats need almost an unheard of 10 point generic ballot to control 52% of the House seats? It’s curious this has left the public discourse. Gerrymandering must be on the Dem docket fast.

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Maximum @MaximumLib

3 days ago

@Socdem_Michael Steil won by 11% in 2024 and every forecaster has this race going to the GOP. If this poll was accurate it would imply a very large blue wave

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Maximum @MaximumLib

3 days ago

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Maximum @MaximumLib

4 days ago

McCain saved their ass

NickFrank40 @NickyFrank30

4 days ago

The 2008 House elections were D+10.5, the largest margin in any House election since 1982.

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Maximum @MaximumLib

4 days ago

44. Minnesota 45. Georgia 46. New Hampshire 47. North Carolina 48. Maine 49. Michigan 50. Texas 51. Alaska 52. Ohio 53. Kansas 54. Iowa 55. South Carolina 56. Nebraska 57. Florida 58. Mississipi

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Maximum @MaximumLib

4 days ago

Remember, Kansas has swung 11 points left since 2012

Maximum @MaximumLib

4 weeks ago

Interestingly, Kansas has actually shifted even more since 2012 (D+11 since then, Alaska has only been D+6). Kansas is an interesting play in the long term, but feels less within reach for 26 if the main swings are coming from minority communities.

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Maximum @MaximumLib

4 days ago

Pete flipped quite a number of Obama-Trump counties in the 2020 Iowa Caucuses. He generally does quite well with suburban and rural voters. I think if someone like him wins the nomination Kansas could be the New Jersey of 2028

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Maximum @MaximumLib

4 days ago

Obviously Dems aren't gaining as much in white areas this year as they have in previous elections. Despite that, multiple non Dem-leaning polls now have Hamilton in front. I wonder if a Dem like Buttigieg could get Kansas within 5 or so points in 2028

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Project Liberal @ProjectLiberal

6 days ago

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Maximum @MaximumLib

6 days ago

@nikicaga He looks like an ex republican Florida politician that went on to lose by 8% in this pic

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Maximum @MaximumLib

a week ago

Maine won't be tilt blue if the Dems win Kansas and Nebraska

Polling USA @USA_Polling

a week ago

Still my Senate map atm

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Maximum @MaximumLib

a week ago

@Socdem_Michael SC and Kansas are tossups if it's D+11

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Maximum @MaximumLib

a week ago

For Gov I'm relatively confident compared to Election Twitter that KLB wins. Ossoff is going to win by like, 8-12 points, I don't think she lags behind him by enough to lose.

Maximum @MaximumLib

a week ago

This is how I think the Senate ends up in November. Generic Ballot in this scenario is D+9 (For margins, 0-2 Tilt, 2-5 lean, 5-10 likely)

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Maximum @MaximumLib

a week ago

I think the Northeast doesn't see a *huge* blue shift, but those states are blue enough already that the GCB probably ends up at like, D+9 in NH, and D+11 in ME, and I don't think the GOP can overcome that. It probably ends up being a GOP bloodbath in the sunbelt

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Maximum @MaximumLib

a week ago

I'm choosing to believe the polls in the sense that the biggest gains for Dems will come from voters that flipped to Trump in 2020/2024 (hispanics/young ppl). I think polls are still underestimating R's in the midwest due to rural whites that will end up voting for them.