𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

https://t.co/YfcrnyV3jJ #unjournal (https://t.co/UX8Sn5SYGZ): see more on Bluesky. Research tools. #openscience, #econtwitter, effective philanthropy davidreinstein.org Massachusetts, USA Joined August 2017

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

a day ago

Exploring ways to actually _reward_ the anonymous suggestions. More on this later.

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

a day ago

Unjournal.org welcomes critique, questions and suggestions from our team, evaluators and anyone else. Share anonymously if you like: We may respond publicly after checking for identifying details. Tick “keep private” to opt out. unjournal-feedback.netlify.app

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 days ago

@StefanFSchubert Why can't technology replace all of this, though? You can always have a translating earbud in your ear, and text tools on your phone/computer? These work well & will get better. I'm not saying "don't learn a language." But it's not clear English will be particularly useful.

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 days ago

Still, I'm moderately hopeful/confident this will reverse. It's not 'permanently cancelled forever'. I think there will be enough mainstream support to bring it back in some form in 2-4 years. (And still, it's a tragedy).

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 days ago

Americans on both extremes of the political spectrum loved to criticize USAID, mostly unfairly imo: "white savior colonialism just to help US industry" vs "foreign rat-holes, keep our money at home".

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 days ago

GDP per year (big stack of bricks) and ODA given (smaller stack). The recent drops means the USA has fallen below Germany, a country with less than 1/4 the population & 1/6 the GDP, as a "foreign aid power". (ChatGPT helped build this chart, obviously)

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 days ago

@mattyglesias I said something similar down in @Benthamsbulldog 's branch of the thread. @mattyglesias Your 838 likes are rightfully mine! (But if we do solve the "hard problem of consciousness" in this one, I'll eat my hat.)

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 days ago

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 days ago

daaronr.github.io/music/#v=1&k=C A little tool I built - 18 ways through a 12-bar blues form, with chords maps and a simple backing track that can be adjusted. Let me know if you find it useful. #jazz #blues #musictheory

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

3 days ago

@brown421762 @Benthamsbulldog @DrGeneCallahan @clairlemon I would suspect there is no consciousness created, but I don’t know how you could be so certain. Basically, because consciousness itself and its origin is very mysterious I’m sure you’ve heard of the “hard problem of consciousness”.

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

3 days ago

@Benthamsbulldog @DrGeneCallahan @clairlemon I think it’s possible that AI or any complex system could be conscious — but I have strong doubts about how we would ever know this was the case and, if it were conscious, what caused it pleasure/pain/satisfaction or anything else morally important. lesswrong.com/posts/ngPWzcPd…

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

3 days ago

@FutureEconJacob @ReadTransformer But my impression from the notes was the consensus was mainly that this was through the impact on rapid growth in the wealthiest countries – AI wasn’t predicted to slow growth in the poor countries iirc?

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

3 days ago

But can AI jazz? A quick experiment: ai-jazz-tune-trial.netlify.app Have a lesson and vote: which model/attempt has more swing?

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

3 days ago

@ryancbriggs @AndyMasley that said I’m not sure about the usefulness of analogies to the industrial information revolutions because there’s something particular about AI and its ability to adapt, think, and self improve that these other technologies didn’t really exhibit without human support

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

3 days ago

@ryancbriggs @AndyMasley Maybe paired with statements made about this in past technology revolutions, where some professions were or were not replaced with automation/machines.

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 weeks ago

@OlegUrminsky For ex 3, if the study provided evidence updating you towards that belief , it is helpful to inform other researchers not to pursue something futile

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 weeks ago

@OlegUrminsky @PsychRabble Floor effects I guess

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 weeks ago

@OlegUrminsky That is still valuable imo. Consensus doesn’t mean “everyone has 100% certainty” implying a stuck prior. Evidence suggesting the consensus was right should be part of the record.

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 weeks ago

@ryancbriggs (Also valuable: evidence that the justified belief distribution is less concentrated than we previously thought).

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𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗 @GivingTools

2 weeks ago

@ryancbriggs I wish we could use a term other than “null results” though. Because that conflates underpowered work/ work that has little information to update on with meaningful evidence of a near zero or bounded effect.