FAST Graphs @FASTGraphs

Want Investing Success?  Master Compounding First | FAST Graphs #investing #stockmarket #stocks youtu.be/gDDMuiBXkvI?si…

$META is up 26% this month it's still "cheap". VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs): Blended P/E: 26.50x Normal P/E: 31.44x Growth rate: 29.11% META trades at roughly the same multiple as the S&P 500 with higher growth and a better track record than most companies in the index. THE BUSINESS: Meta sells advertising against the attention of more than 3 billion daily users across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger. That business runs at an operating margin above 40%, and it funds everything else the company does, including one of the world's largest AI infrastructure buildouts. Most of the debate about Meta is about spending and what P/E multiple investors should be willing to pay. THE FUNDAMENTALS (2022 to 2025): Revenue: $116.6B to $201.0B (19.89% CAGR) Net income: $23.2B to $60.5B (37.60% CAGR) Operating cash flow: $50.5B to $115.8B (31.88% CAGR) Operating margin: 28.78% to 41.44% Return on equity: 18.60% to 30.56% Return on invested capital: 18.82% to 26.43% Net income grew nearly twice as fast as revenue. Operating margin expanded almost 13 points in three years. EPS HISTORY: 2012: $0.53 2025: $23.49 Analyst estimates: $31.49 in 2026, $33.75 in 2027, $39.18 in 2028 Since 2011: EPS are up 5,574.94% with the price up 1,933.88%. For comparison, the S&P 500 EPS is up 220.35% over the same period. THE SCENARIOS (from @FASTGraphs): $10,000 invested at $777.59 buys 12.86 shares. If META holds its current 26.50x multiple and earnings grow at the 13.59% CAGR analysts model through 2028, the Forecasting tab shows $13,420 including dividends. Total return 34.20%, or 13.84% annualized. No multiple expansion required. If it returns to its 31.44x Normal P/E on the same estimates: 2028 EPS of $39.18 times 31.44 is $1,231.82 per share, about 58% total. Look at what those estimates assume. The 13.59% forward EPS growth is roughly a third of the 37.60% net income CAGR of the last three years. And 2027 is modeled at 7%, sitting between 34% in 2026 and 16% in 2028. If growth lands closer to recent history, the estimates are too low, which could result in better performance from the stock. These are not predictions. They show how the Forecasting tab in FAST Graphs lets you see what different multiples and growth rates would produce, using analyst estimates that can be wrong. THE CATCH: Net investing cash flow went from $29.0B in 2022 to $102.0B in 2025. That is nearly all of the $115.8B in operating cash flow going back into data centers, and cash on hand fell $6.3B for the year. LT debt-to-capital rose from 16.84% to 27.31%. 2025 EPS came in at $23.49, down 2%, the first decline since 2022. The market is pricing META as if the $100B+ of annual capex is permanent. If it is, and the return on it never shows up in earnings, then the stock would likely be re-rated to a lower P/E multiple. If capex normalizes, $115.8B of operating cash flow stops being consumed by investment, and free cash flow changes dramatically. This is the beauty of FAST Graphs. It gives you the tools to quickly understand a business's fundamentals and test different scenarios based on whatever future projections you want. If you enjoy these quick dives, be sure to follow @FASTGraphs and reply below with a stock you want us to review.

$HEI turned $10,000 into more than $13 million since 1990 and most investors have never heard of it. VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs): Blended P/E: 49.61x Normal P/E: 41.68x Fair Value Ratio: 17.86x (P/E set equal to the 17.86% long term earnings growth rate) EPS yield: 2.02% Since December 2005 the price is up 6,386% and earnings are up 3,315%. Investors today are paying roughly double the multiple they paid in 2005 Over 20 years the stock compounded at 20.71% a year against 9.84% for the S&P 500. This is a long-term winner but the question investors have to ask is what P/E multiple does the business deserve moving forward? THE BUSINESS: When an airline needs a replacement part for a jet engine, the original manufacturer sets the price, and most of the manufacturer's profit is in those parts, not the new engine. HEICO reverse engineers the part, gets the FAA to approve it, and sells it for 30 to 50% less. It is the world's largest independent maker of FAA-approved jet engine replacement parts, and it owns a second business making electronics for defense, space and medical customers. In 1990 it was a struggling company with one approved part, one factory in Hollywood, Florida, $26 million in revenue and a market cap about the same size. Laurans Mendelson and his sons Eric and Victor became the largest shareholders and took control. They have made close to 100 acquisitions since, usually buying from founders and usually leaving them with a stake, and the largest was Wencor for $2 billion in 2023. Lufthansa's maintenance arm has owned 20% of the replacement parts subsidiary since 1997, which tells you what the customers think of the product. Laurans died last September at 87. Eric and Victor, who have run the company day to day since 2009, are now co-chairmen and co-CEOs. Berkshire Hathaway took a small position in 2024. THE FUNDAMENTALS (2022 to 2025): Revenue: $2.21B to $4.49B (26.63% CAGR) Gross income: $939M to $1.91B (26.65% CAGR) Net income: $352M to $690M (25.21% CAGR) Operating cash flow: $468M to $934M (25.92% CAGR) Operating margin: 22.10% to 22.44% Return on equity: 14.43% to 17.09% Return on invested capital: 15.02% to 12.80% LT debt/capital: 12.23% to 34.47% FG Score: 89/100 Revenue doubled in three years. Gross margin was 42.5% at the start and 42.5% at the end, and operating margin held above 22% while the company digested the largest deal it has ever done which increased long term debt to capital from 12.23% to 44.61% in one year. However, debt has come down every year since. Return on invested capital fell from 15.02% to 12.80% because the capital base got much bigger, and the 53/100 Financial Strength in the FG score is the result of the deal on $HEI's balance sheet. EPS HISTORY: 2007: $0.30 2012: $0.66 2017: $1.37 2019: $2.39 2021: $2.21 2023: $2.91 2025: $4.90 2026 estimate: $6.32 2027 estimate: $7.13 2028 estimate: $7.99 THE CATCH: The P/E multiple is basically at an all-time-high. At 49.61x, HEICO trades 19% above its own 20 year Normal P/E of 41.68x, which is already a rich multiple for 17.86% long term growth. On the Forecasting tab, which uses the 13.07% growth analysts expect from here instead of the 20 year record, the Fair Value Ratio is 15x. But the price has been above that orange line for more than a decade. Here is what $7.99 of 2028 earnings is worth in October 2028 depending only on the multiple the market pays. If today's multiple of 49.61x holds: $396, up 29% If it trades at its 20-year normal P/E of 41.68x: $333, up 9% If the multiple contracts down to 22.50x: $180, down 41% If it trades down to the 15.00x Fair Value Ratio: $120, down 61% HEICO reported a record quarter on August 25: sales up 23%, net income up 33%, cash from operations up 49%. But the stock is down about 13% since. Earnings grew and the price fell, which is an example of multiple compression.

$XPEL is up 71,115% since December 2011 and most investors have never heard of it. VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs): Blended P/E: 21.85x Normal P/E: 27.14x Fair Value Ratio: 33.53x (P/E set equal to the 33.53% long term earnings growth rate) EPS yield: 4.58% Since December 2011 EPS is up 6,886%. So price outran earnings by about 10 to 1. The stock is currently still roughly 50% below its 2021 peak when the stock hit $103 and traded at a 90x P/E multiple. Everything since has been the multiple coming down while earnings kept growing. THE BUSINESS: XPEL sells paint protection film: a clear urethane layer installed over a car's paint that takes the rock chips and scratches instead of the paint, and heals light marks with heat. It also sells window tint, ceramic coatings and architectural window film. Surprisingly, the company got its start in San Antonio in 1997 as a software company. The founders built a database of digital cutting patterns so installers could plot film to fit a specific vehicle instead of trimming it by hand on the paint with a razor. That software, DAP, is key to XPEL's success. It is the industry's largest pattern library, installers run their shops on it, and switching film brands means giving it up. Ryan Pape became CEO in February 2009 with the stock at $0.04 and a market cap near $1 million, and put company debt on his personal credit cards to keep it alive. Revenue was roughly $3 million that year and under Pape's leadership, has grown to $476 million as of FY 25. Along the way XPEL bought its distributors in Canada, France, Australia and India, took a majority stake in its China distributor in 2025, and built its own installation centers. It now owns the software, the distribution and a growing share of the installs. THE FUNDAMENTALS (2022 to 2025): Revenue: $324M to $476M (13.69% CAGR) Gross income: $128M to $201M (16.38% CAGR) Net income: $41.4M to $51.2M (7.37% CAGR) Operating cash flow: $12.1M to $66.9M (77.05% CAGR) Operating margin: 16.65% to 13.03% Return on equity: 38.05% to 19.69% Return on invested capital: 28.23% to 17.58% LT debt/capital: 22.85% to 5.51% Over the last few years, Gross margin went up while Operating margin went down. The difference is operating expenses, which nearly doubled from $73.6M to $139.0M with revenue growing 47%. Net income grew at about half the rate of revenue. Cash is the bright spot. Operating cash flow went from less than a third of net income in 2022 to 1.3 times net income in 2025, and long term debt was cut to almost nothing. EPS HISTORY: 2017: $0.04 2018: $0.32 2021: $1.14 2023: $1.91 2024: $1.65 2025: $1.85 2026 estimate: $2.22 2027 estimate: $2.89 2028 estimate: $4.10 $0.04 to $1.85 in eight years with one down year. In 2024 revenue growth slowed to 6% and EPS actually fell 14% as their Chinese distributor worked down inventory and high end car sales cooled. EPS Growth came back at 12% in 2025 and analysts model 20%, 30% and 42% in FY 26, 27, and 28. THE CATCH: The 33.53% growth rate behind the Fair Value Ratio covers the whole period back to 2012, when EPS was $0.05. The last three years net income grew at 7.37%. A 33.53x fair value multiple only means something if growth returns to something close to the old rate, and the estimates assume it does: 20% this year, 30% next year, 42% in 2028. XPEL is currently at a cross roads. The company has never manufactured its own film. Historically, it has bought film from a supplier, and its edge was software, brand and distribution, which is how it earned a 28% return on invested capital with very little capital required. In 2025 and 2026 management committed about $110 million to bring manufacturing in house: a 435,000 square foot site in San Antonio and a film plant in China. The San Antonio site alone cost $60.4 million. Management expects the margin benefit to start in mid 2027. Until then, the asset light company that earned the historical multiple is becoming a manufacturer. At 21.85x against a 27.14x Normal P/E and a 4.58% earnings yield, XPEL screens as cheap relative to its own history, and the recent quarters hold up: Q2 revenue grew 14.7% with gross margin at 44.1%. Two things to check before treating the discount as an opportunity. Whether operating margin turns back up from 13.03% now that the acquisitions are in the numbers. And the second half: first half 2026 EPS was $1.02, up 13%, so the $2.22 full year estimate needs about $1.20 in the second half, up 26% from the same period last year. That acceleration either shows up in the Q3 report in November or the 20% estimate comes down.

Is This The Most Powerful Growth Stock On The Planet And The Least Risky? | FAST Graphs #stocks #investing #stockmarket #fastgraphs youtu.be/QNWJc8scaZU?si…

What’s the worst return you’ve ever had from a stock?

$KNSL might be the best business most investors have never heard of. THE BUSINESS: Kinsale writes excess & surplus insurance. These are the commercial risks standard carriers won't touch: the contractor with a rough loss history, the niche operation nobody has priced before. It's one of the few corners of insurance where underwriting skill still decides who wins. Kinsale built its own technology to quote these risks faster and at a lower expense ratio than competitors, and it's founder-led with real insider ownership. THE FUNDAMENTALS (2022 to 2025): Revenue: $819M to $1.87B (31.73% CAGR) Net income: $159M to $504M (46.81% CAGR) Operating margin: 24.43% to 34.42% Return on equity: 28.25% LT debt/capital: 20.80% down to 10.27% Net income grew faster than revenue. Margins expanded nearly 10 points. Debt got cut in half. The business got better as it grew, EPS HISTORY: 2017: $1.25 2025: $19.51 Over 15x in eight years. Not a single down year. VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs ): Blended P/E: 17.39x Normal P/E: 33.42x Trading near HALF its historical multiple THE CATCH: EPS growth is slowing: 60%, 28%, 21%, then 9%, 2%, 5%. The E&S market is softening after years of hard pricing. The business is still excellent. But the growth that earned a 33x multiple is not the growth analysts are modeling from here. Cheap compared to its historical multiple. The question is what multiple will investors be willing to pay moving forward?

These two things don’t add up The S&P 500 is trading about 20% above its average historical Blended P/E But the Fear & Greed Index is almost in “EXTREME FEAR”

Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay

3 weeks ago

The stock market is on the verge of falling into “extreme fear.”

95 140 2K 138K 55

Copart is down almost 50% since 2025 and trading at a Blended P/E of 19.19x. It has rarely traded below a P/E of 20x. In 2007 $CPRT hit a P/E of 19.27 and returned 351% over the next 10 years. In 2012 it hit a P/E of 17.09 and returned 1,007% over the next 10 years. Are you buying, selling, or holding?

Here's why $COST has been flat for 2 years In 2024 it had a blended P/E of 54x compared to its normal historical P/E of 30x EPS grew 10% in FY 25 and 13% in FY 26 Now at a blended P/E of 44x it's still trading at about a 50% premium compared to its historical P/E Are you buying, holding, or selling Costco?

Which stock would you buy today? $NKE trading at an all-time low with a blended P/E of 19 Or $INTC trading at an all-time high with a blended P/E of 80 Or I’m not touching either with a 10 foot poll?

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Someone dug this old gem up, so I checked the resulting outcome, 6+ years later. The moral of the story is don't buy Clorox for 30x earnings and don't lend money to the government for a 0.6% yield. If you do, you're gonna have a bad time.

Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact

7 years ago

Clorox $CLX trades at nearly 30 times earnings and grows at a low single-digit growth rate per year. Dividend yield is 2.2%. Question: Would you rather buy and hold that for the next ten years, or a 10-year Treasury note yielding 0.6%?

58 29 350 0 30

Is there a better company at doing share buy backs than $FICO?

Austin Lieberman @LiebermanAustin

a month ago

$FICO Is one of the best Buy Back monsters in the market. 1000% total return over the last decade and share count down over 60% from 65 million in 2006 to 25 million in 2025. What’s your favorite buy backs monster? Charts from @FASTGraphs (give them a follow if you care about

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

4 1 14 7K 7

SUNDAY CHART REQUESTS Drop your chart requests here and check back tonight for our analysis using FAST Graphs

$NVDA EARNINGS PREVIEW Reports Wednesday 8/26, after close Company Guidance • Revenue $91.0B • Implies 96% YoY growth vs $46.7B yr ago • Non-GAAP gross margin ~75.0% • Assumes ZERO China data center revenue • Consensus EPS $2.08 Key Things To Watch • Next-quarter guide • Vera Rubin ramp, shipments start this qtr • Margin durability at 75% • Supply commentary. Huang says they'll be short Valuation Into The Print (FAST Graphs) • Blended P/E: 32.07x • Normal P/E: 42.03x • Trading ~24% BELOW its normal multiple

$INTC is up 370% in the last year The stock now trades at a P/E of 95x vs its historical average of 17x with an abismal FG score of 8/100. Are you bullish or bearish on Intel from here?

$CSL Update Q2 2026 results • Revenue $1.57B (+8% YoY, record) • Adj EPS $7.03 (+12%, beat by ~11%) • Operating margin 22.4% • Raised FY revenue outlook + buyback to $1.2B Valuation (FAST Graphs) • Blended P/E: 18.21x • Normal P/E: 20.11x • ~10% below its normal multiple