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I think Jev is a cool API, but it is not probabilistic programming; qualifying it as a Kleisli arrow that I have seen people do here is exaggerating. Claude Code's explanation: Jev gives you the marginals; a decoder gives you the joint Jev's arrow is State → Dist[B] — a Kleisli arrow in the Giry/distribution monad, yes. But asking N questions about one fixed state isn't Kleisli composition; it's a fan-out, ⟨q₁,…,qₙ⟩ : State → Dist[B₁] × ⋯ × Dist[Bₙ]. Note the product is outside the monad: you get n marginals, not a Dist[B₁ × ⋯ × Bₙ]. And marginals don't determine the joint unless the coordinates are independent — which is the precise reason your "low probability at step 1 can win after composition" happens. The jointly-best answer need not be the tuple of marginally-best answers. The two things missing are exactly the two things that turn the monad into a language rather than a classifier: - bind (>=>) — P(c) = Σ_b P(b)·P(c∣b), marginalizing over the intermediate. Jev can't express it because q₂'s distribution is read off the same state, never off q₁'s outcome-as-new-state. - observe / condition — Bayesian update, P(latent ∣ evidence). Jev has no observe; it emits a fixed readout.

James Pearce @jamespearce

3 weeks ago

At Facebook, @headinthebox was talking about probabilistic programming… TEN years ago. I hope he’s excited about Jev - either way I’m keen to hear his take.

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14 HARVARD TECHNIQUES to be better than 99% of the world 1. The 5 - second rule

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