Deep Inference @DeepInference
the more I learn… the more I realize how much I don’t know - Einstein. Partner of @aionanalytics aionanalytics.com Joined January 2025-
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Think the bottom is in? Think again. Think this morning's gap changed anything? It didn't. Think three days out I can tell you which way it breaks? I can't. Nobody can. It's a coin flip, and that's the friendliest reading in the entire stack. Think it gets better from there? Keep reading. I know most of you hate me by now. That's fine. My job isn't to make you happy, it's to review data, and the data below is why I'm still sitting on my hands.
Our internal Crash Probability model on the S&P went from 4% to 15% in three weeks. Half the index is in a bear market from its highs. Eight models, zero bullish. Timestamped so we can grade it together over the next 20 trading days. x.com/i/article/2103…
Anyone else seeing the resemblance here? Similar pattern, similar timing? That, my friends, is 1987. I’m sure you’ve heard of a little thing called Black Monday. The preliminary selloff began around October 6, accelerated into Black Monday on October 19, and bottomed on October 20. Anyway, these charts look absolutely nothing alike… and it’s 2026, not 1987. The market never rhymes with itself, so obviously there’s nothing to worry about. So yeah. Totally different. Nothing remotely reflexive or leverage-related hiding under the hood this time, right guys?
Think the bottom is in? Think again. Think this morning's gap changed anything? It didn't. Think three days out I can tell you which way it breaks? I can't. Nobody can. It's a coin flip, and that's the friendliest reading in the entire stack. Think it gets better from there?
@blondesnmoney Is this an attempt at an anti-screenshot?
@jeichner5 It’s just a joke bro cmon
@JN34888362 Cmon bro, aren’t you used to 3-sigma events by now?
Trump thinks he just reverse merged all of AI.
Eight days ago I posted that the window for upside closed with September and that I would not be risk on with size into October. The window topped at $780 two days later. Today, on the eve of the cascade dates, the terminal printed its most extreme reading of the entire year. Every page of the full scan, and the exact fork for this week 🧵
@CMSinvestments IWM looks like shit
Would you rather: A. Trade sideways for another 18 months B. Accept the V bottom and move on To me the answer is pretty obvious. The sooner the market sells off violently, the quicker Iran is resolved and the quicker we move into maximum pump to close out the year.
Seems a pretty decent split between whether we sell or rip in October. There's a world where we can have both. And if you're in the camp of mega Santa rally to close off the year, let me say the best rallies under Trump have always been off V bottoms.
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