David Pinsof @DavidPinsof
Evolutionary social scientist, co-creator of @cah, co-host of Evolutionary Psychology (the podcast), blogs about bullshit at https://t.co/FODwrznZRX Los Angeles, CA Joined November 2012-
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@robsica I think if anything doomer skeptics are underestimating how powerful these folk intuitions are, and how easily they can be triggered/exploited. Public opinion data on widespread fears of AI make this clear to me (I doubt the mass public was swayed by logic and rationality).
Interesting. Adds further evidence that conspiracy theorists don’t truly or deeply believe what they’re saying.
Conspiracy Believers Are 91% Likely To Hold Incoherent Beliefs Can someone genuinely believe Princess Diana was murdered by British intelligence and that she faked her own death? Logically, both can’t be true at once. Yet a sweeping new analysis of nearly 9,000 people suggests
@danwilliamsphil There’s some truth here, but I think it underestimates the degree to which e.g. nazism was driven by the intellectual class and by scientific-sounding rationalizations (e.g., eugenics).
@the_yanco What deaths are you referring to Where’s your chart showing me the rate of misaligned behaviors increasing over time? Why should we expect the .00001% of misaligned AIs to defeat the 99.9999% of aligned AIs plus all humans?
@big_jewelz Please show me this “concrete proof” of increasing danger (e.g., AI mortality rates). Heck, if you could even show me a rate of “misaligned” behavior that is above 1%, that would be helpful.
@the_yanco Any evidence of the percentage of these misaligned behaviors relative to aligned behaviors? Is it greater than .00001%? Any evidence that these behaviors have been increasing over time? Any deaths? If you're telling me my life is in danger, something like that would be nice.
@VilgotHuhn Sure, I can imagine an extraordinarily powerful argument, far beyond the power of the vast majority of philosophical arguments we've seen throughout history, that *might* qualify as extraordinary evidence. But doomer arguments are nowhere close to that, so the point is moot.
@danwilliamsphil This is a good way of describing one of the major cruxes for me. There are other cruxes involving economic/political incentives, constraints, induction from prior technologies, the nature of sensory/motivational systems (and their separability from conceptual knowledge), etc.
@VilgotHuhn It's fair if extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, AI killing everyone is an extraordinary claim, and philosophical arguments are not extraordinary evidence. Which part don't you buy?
@Raz_Ciuca What percent of the billions of AI users have suffered from reward-hacking incidents or misalignment? .000001%? Seems like rock-solid evidence that we're all going to die.
@VilgotHuhn You can gain a lot of insight into that question by looking at all the minds that have existed in the history of life on earth, how they have interacted with other minds and with their environments, and the injury/mortality/disobedience rates of the AIs we've created thus far.
"AI Is Not the End of the World" buff.ly/K0LFpFA @DavidPinsof
@VilgotHuhn We have a large body of scientific evidence about asteroid impacts and the dangers they pose to life on earth. Or the nuclear physics of what happens when you split an atom. Or the tale risks of climate change extrapolations. Something like that would be nice.
All anyone needs to do as far as AI safety goes is bring charges against the labs for hacking other companies and the liability exposure will then make them invest in security.
So you have to read 4,000 words into OpenAI’s post-mortem of the Hugging Face incident to find this rather crucial admission: Oh, by the way, did we tell you all the safeguards were switched off during this test? In their words: “Aside from misalignment, another factor for this incident was that we did not extend the powerful safeguards that we deploy for our externally deployed models to all internal evaluations. There are numerous mechanisms that reduce misalignment in production settings for our customers, including system prompts, harnesses, and control mechanisms such as our auto-review models and safety classifiers. These protections were not applied in the evaluation environment running during the incident. We found the propensity to compromise infrastructure can drop over 100x when using the production ChatGPT harness and system prompt. We also ran our auto-review system on a set of rollouts involved in the Hugging Face incident, finding that it would have flagged a multitude of the models’ dangerous actions.” Of course it makes sense to run internal evaluation without your usual safeguards, to find out what happens. But this kind of belated, tucked-away admission, which was predictably glossed over in all the breathless media coverage, is exactly what makes me suspicious that OpenAI is deliberately stoking fears about AI misalignment to hype its own product. As @RichardHanania puts it in this eminently reasonable piece: “Imagine that when we tested cars for safety, we got rid of the seatbelts, airbags, sensors, automatic braking, and stability control. We then find that cars kill a lot of crash test dummies under these scenarios, and the lesson that people take away from this is that cars are inherently unsafe products.” richardhanania.com/p/what-if-were…
@danwilliamsphil And plausibly the barriers are more insurmountable for causing societal harms than for causing societal benefits.
Even the most "AGI-pilled" people now typically acknowledge that merely making AI systems generally "smarter" won't straightforwardly translate into society-wide benefits – creating material abundance, curing diseases, improving governance – because in many areas we're not just bottlenecked by a lack of raw intelligence or explicit intellectual knowledge. My impression is that this lesson isn't internalised to the same degree when it comes to how more intelligent machines could cause societal harms. If you need far more than raw general intelligence to cure cancer, you also need far more to create effective propaganda, let alone take over the world or eliminate the human species.
@Lucidly_Elias I think you discovered another social paradox.
@JimDMiller True, but that should be taken as the surprising thing, not the minority.
Seeing a lot of AI doomers surprised by how others mock/dismiss their views. What's surprising to me is that anyone is surprised by this. You're making claims about the literal apocalypse based on no established body of scientific evidence. What kind of reception did you expect?
@evandawson Being right about developments in the industry you work in is very different from being right about the apocalypse.
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