Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha

As of this evening, Trump⁠ and Xi have completed their main bilateral meeting. The meeting lasted about 90 minutes, with additional events and a state dinner taking place. 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Biggest headlines so far 🔘 1. Trade truce extended but only temporarily. The U.S. and China agreed to extend their existing trade truce by two months. That avoids an immediate escalation when the arrangement was due to expire in November, but major disputes involving tariffs, Chinese purchases, rare-earth supplies and technology restrictions remain unresolved. ⁠ 🔘 2. AI was a major part of the talks. Artificial intelligence and advanced technology were front and center. The countries have also held their first formal AI dialogue. According to reporting on the talks, the U.S. proposed a mechanism for notifying each other about certain national-security-related AI incidents. ⁠ 🔘 3. Taiwan remains a major disagreement. Xi pressed the U.S. to oppose Taiwanese independence, while China continues to seek an end to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. No major breakthrough on Taiwan has been announced. ⁠ 🔘 4. Iran was another major issue. Trump has been pushing Beijing to use its influence with Iran. Xi said China supports the U.S.-Iran agreement reached in June aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. ⁠ 🔘 5. Both leaders emphasized avoiding direct U.S.-China conflict. Xi called for a relationship based on greater strategic stability and urged increased contact between U.S. and Chinese government departments. China’s official account says Xi called for turning a “constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability” into concrete action. ⁠ 🔘 6. No sweeping U.S.-China deal has emerged. The biggest takeaway at this point is stabilization rather than a grand bargain. The trade truce buys more negotiating time, while the major disputes, trade, AI/chips, Taiwan, rare earths and strategic competition remain. What markets are likely watching most closely… 👇🏼 I’d pay particular attention to semiconductors/AI stocks, rare-earth and critical-mineral companies, Chinese equities, Treasury yields and USD/CNH as more details from the summit emerge. The biggest potential market-moving headline tonight would be anything concrete involving chip/export restrictions, tariffs, Chinese purchases of U.S. goods, rare-earths, grains.

🌾 Russia’s winter grain sowing reached 6.99 million hectares as of September 22, down 12.6% from last year. SovEcon says planting is at its slowest pace since 2013 and roughly 25% below the five-year average. Dry soils, delayed harvests and wheat prices below breakeven are pressuring planting and input spending, raising risks for the 2027 crop. Russian ministry figures include occupied Ukrainian territories. #wheat #Russia

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JUST IN: 🇾🇪🇸🇦 Yemen's Houthis say they attacked Saudi Arabia's Aramco facilities.

🇧🇷 Abiove raised #Brazil’s 2026 soybean crush forecast to 63.5mmt, citing strong domestic processing and a firmer global soyoil market. Soybean exports were trimmed to 115mmt, while #soyoil exports were raised to 1.8mmt. January–July processing rose 8.3% year over year, underscoring growing demand from Brazil’s crushers. #soybeans 🌱 #Brazil 🇧🇷

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#Corn FOB Note. 🌽 📝 Corn FOB export values, Feb to Sep 2026. Five origins, one shift: the US is no longer the cheap seller. US Gulf traded under Brazil every day from February through July, 23¢ under on average. The spread flipped in mid August. Gulf now $6.27, Brazil $6.13, Argentina $5.75. PNW $6.57, a 30¢ premium to the Gulf and 44¢ over Brazil. Off the June 10 lows: Gulf +115¢, PNW +117¢, Brazil +88¢, Argentina +76¢. The rally has been US-led, and the flip landed right as Brazil's safrinha exports ramp into the fall. Gulf premium over Brazil in September means US corn has to buy its export business with basis, not the board. If Gulf/Brazil holds positive into October, it shows up in weekly export sales before it shows up in futures. The Ukraine series stops Aug 10, so the Black Sea offer is the missing number.

US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US economic blockade of Iran, Reuters reports. The biggest hurdle: Neither side wants to give up its leverage first. No agreement has been reached, but reopening the vital shipping route could ease oil supply pressures and help lower gasoline prices. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics

@DeerefarmerJn Definitely.

Next 7 day forecast continues to show A LOT of rain in the western belt. 🌽 🌱 #harvest26

Oil… 🚀 +5%

@SoybeanTrader88 Absolutely nothing.

Nov Feeder #Cattle Note. 📝 🐂

4hr Dec #Corn Note. 🌽 📝 🔻Momentum = Bearish 🔻 Trend = Bearish 🟢 Support 523-528

🇺🇦 Ukraine’s agricultural exports reached 44% of estimated potential in September’s first 20 days, up from 30% in August, as alternative logistics routes expanded. Higher transport costs still make some exports unprofitable, keeping Greater Odesa ports critical. Prolonged maritime restrictions could cut annual exports by up to 30 million tonnes and revenue by $10 billion under the Agriculture Ministry’s pessimistic scenario.

Sep 24th Trading Notes: 📝 🌽 #corn flips to NEUTRAL on a +402K net (-29K), still 97% of range, #neutral bias with 529'0 under P531 and S 526/522 in play 🌱 #Soybeans eases to MODERATE LONG +239K (-10K), 93% of range, #neutral bias with 1325'0 over P1319 and pressing R 1326/1335 🌱 #Soymeal steps back to LARGE LONG +197K (-1K), still 100% of range, while #soyoil holds MODERATE SHORT on a +92K net (-2K) — oil share still the split 🌾 #Wheat NEUTRAL on a -20K net (-8K), #bearish with 708'0 under P710, S 701/694 in play 🌽 Crowding: #meal pinned at 100% of historical range, #corn 97%, #beans 93%, #KCWheat 79% now labeled SMALL SHORT on a +37K net 🐂 Divergence: #cattle SMALL LONG on a +43K net (+5K), #feeders MODERATE LONG on a +7K net (+2K), #hogs LARGE SHORT on a -27K net (-5K) ☁️ #Cotton NEUTRAL, +1K on the day (9th of 10 on the board), sitting at 81% of range 📆 #Today: #ExportSales, #DroughtMonitor and Jobless Claims all 7:30am CT, plus the #Xi #Trump meeting — #crude 93.034 (+0.874), $DXY 101.274 (+0.178), #gold 4259.72 (-27.67) ☀️🌡️ #Weather: ECMWF ensemble 15-day precip thru Oct 9 #Kansas 2.24-4.04in, #Nebraska 1.48-4.03in, #Iowa 2.39-3.95in, #Oklahoma 2.17-2.81in; 90-100% odds of 2in+ across eastern #Nebraska, western #Iowa and northern #Kansas

☕✨ Coffee with Alpha video and commentary just dropped. Same daily grain market intel! 🌽🌱🌾🐂📊 🔹 Members: check your inbox (and spam, just in case). 👀 🚨 Not in yet? 1 month free. No excuses. 📲 Hit the link and see what's waiting for you this morning. 👇 #AlphaTrade 📈 #harvest26 lakefrontfutures.com/alpha-trade/ 🌽🌱🌾🇺🇸

Heavenly Father, I come to you not because I have earned a place here, but because you have shown me mercy upon mercy. Before I ever offered you anything, you gave everything. Let that mercy be the reason I rise this morning and the reason I give myself to you again. Take my body, Lord: my hands, my eyes, my words, my time. I don't offer them as something dead and finished on an altar, but as a living sacrifice, one I choose again with every breath. When I'm tempted to crawl off the altar and take my life back into my own keeping, remind me of the cross and draw me back. Make me holy. Not in appearance only, but in the hidden places, in the thoughts no one sees and the motives only you know. Let what I do in private match what I say in public. Let my whole life be acceptable to you. Let the ordinary work of today, the calls, the decisions, the conversations, the long hours, become worship. Teach me that serving you isn't confined to Sunday, but lived out in how I treat people, how I handle what you've entrusted to me, and how I carry myself when no one is keeping score. This is my reasonable service, Lord. After all you've done, it's the least I can give and the best I have. Receive it, shape it, and use it for your glory. In the name of Jesus, who gave himself fully for me, Amen. #dailyprayer✝️

Romans 12:1 🙏🏼

@laurenpayne2012 That’s the best answer lol

At what point does +5% 10-Year & +$6 diesel start breaking things?!?! 🚨‼️🔔

@sschevelle33 10 being a bubble, we’re at an 8

@kaunard

Last 14 day total precip. WET. Have you started harvest? #harvest26 #corn 🌽 #soybeans 🌱