ChinaFile @ChinaFile

“To determine whether the Trump-Xi summit is fruitful, we can look for two key pieces of groundwork for future talks. Do Trump and Xi select consistent interlocutors to continue discussions at the working level, and can they identify concrete challenges related to AI that both sides want to tackle?” writes @hlntnr in her comments for @ChinaFile.

What to Watch at the Xi-Trump Summit? My thoughts for @ChinaFile / @AsiaPolicy: 'Xi Jinping will arrive in Washington for his summit with Donald Trump hoping to prolong the current stability in U.S.-China relations. Since Xi countered last year’s “Liberation Day” tariff hike with disruptive rare-earth export controls, Trump has prioritized good relations with him and put several planned technology restrictions on hold. That has slowed the expansion of the “derisking” agenda of sanctions, export controls, and targeted economic containment that was a pillar of the Biden administration’s China policy. Their Beijing summit in May saw Trump endorse Xi’s framing of bilateral ties as a “constructive relationship of strategic stability.” Beijing sees the present moment as a golden opportunity to accelerate industrial self-reliance and strengthen its geoeconomic leverage while limiting further U.S. pressure. Of course, the Trump administration has also authorized a record arms package for Taiwan, placed new restrictions on foreign robots, and accused China of “stealing and copying American AI models.” But many Chinese strategists recognize the U.S. president as a relatively benign figure in Washington when it comes to dealing with Beijing. Indeed, word around D.C. is that more hawkish officials have drafted several proposals to hobble China’s high-tech industries, which are ready to go if Trump sours on Xi. Trump’s centrality to China policymaking makes his personal interactions and negotiations with Xi especially consequential. China’s rare-earth chokehold may encourage restraint, but Trump could swing back to confrontation if he decides Xi is insufficiently respectful or cooperative. That would be Beijing’s worst-case scenario and would likely trigger retaliation, especially given its heightened sensitivity to foreign policy setbacks ahead of a twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle at the 21st Party Congress late next year, when Xi is expected to secure a fourth term. Xi will want his visit planned down to the minute, with equal billing alongside Trump and no risk of embarrassment. According to former Belarusian diplomat Pavel Slunkin, during Xi’s 2015 visit to Belarus, then-protocol chief Qin Gang requested a 2:00 a.m. inspection of a museum Xi would tour later that day. His team wanted to know exactly which step of a staircase Xi would reach when some music began playing. No wonder Chinese officials are rattled at the relative lack of preparation for this summit. Such meticulous planning sits uneasily with Trump’s improvisation: In May, he surprised his hosts by inviting several American executives into a meeting with Xi. Beijing therefore is eager to make the summit a “success” in Trump’s eyes without making significant concessions on issues like AI-model distillation, industrial overcapacity, or rare-earth export controls. Expect progress on Trump’s Board of Trade and Board of Investment initiatives, promises of additional Chinese purchases of U.S. goods, more dialogues, and an extension of the economic truce—although an agreed duration would be moot if Trump decides to pivot on China. If all goes well, the two leaders may end the summit by confirming that Trump will attend APEC in Shenzhen and Xi the G20 in Miami later this year. If things do not go well, we will know much sooner.' Read the whole Conversation for views from my colleagues @wstv_lizzi Craig Allen @pstAsiatech, @hlntnr @LyleJMorris and Jing Qian. Special thanks to Jennifer Choo, @susanjakes and @SegalWilliams for putting this together!

What can we expect from the Xi-Trump meeting next week? ChinaFile presents a Conversation, in partnership with Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis: chinafile.com/conversation/w…

In her new graphic memoir 'Names and Faces,' comic artist Leise Hook illustrates a story of identity, exploring “the in-betweenness of being mixed-race.” Author Q&A: chinafile.com/reporting-opin… Read an excerpt: chinafile.com/library/excerp…

"I had never read a book like this—about us—in either Chinese or English. It would not have passed censorship in China. Yet it’s nothing like the English-language literary fiction about China I’ve read in the past…" Shen Lu on M Lin's The Memory Museum: alltimehai.substack.com/p/reading-my-o…

@RyanFedasiuk Thanks for enriching this discussion, and for encouraging rising experts to experience China. My humble suggestion would be to encourage folks to be driven by evidence. Analysis is more credible when it is grounded in facts and data and not made to conform to a pre-set worldview.

Great observations by @JulianGewirtz. Beijing bracketed Trump's May state visit with visits by other leaders, with Putin immediately following Trump. By attending SCO and BRICS Summits and visiting Cairo, Xi is again setting the table ahead of his meeting with Trump in Sept.

Julian Gewirtz @JulianGewirtz

4 weeks ago

New from me: After years of scaling back his overseas travel, this weekend Xi Jinping will begin an extraordinary diplomatic whirlwind stretching across the next four weeks. I haven’t yet seen much discussion of this diplomatic offensive as a coherent whole—but there should

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A China Hawk's Case for Studying in China Ten years into my own career, I consider my lack of formal China studies education to be both a blessing and a curse. A blessing because—as Jackie suggests—I was able to piece together a great deal of knowledge about the Middle Kingdom free from bias by the entrenched China hands. Having to figure everything out on my own (with tutoring from some colleagues at @CSETGeorgetown) forced me to learn more, and more deeply, about CCP policy—and to move beyond words-on-paper to consider how China “really works.” If you read my work, you’ll notice I tend to elide commentary on the traditional, politically symbolic policy pronouncements taught in Asian studies programs (who cares?) in favor of brass-tacks calculations of U.S. and Chinese power. But, speaking personally—as rewarding as it’s been to chart my own path and come to my own conclusions, I feel my lack of in-country experience has been a real detriment to my analysis. Looking only at the digital exhaust left behind by the CCP, I came to learn a great deal about China’s policies and the predilections of the ruling Party—and relatively little about China itself. I now teach a class on open-source research methods, and was lucky to spend a few years practicing diplomacy directly with Chinese diplomats. The gulf between what you can observe remotely and what you get face-to-face is massive. Each of these is an indispensable source of knowledge, but believe me when I say they are not substitutable. Ten years on, I have still never lived in China. It is probably one of my life's great regrets. I feel I can credibly claim expertise in U.S.-China relations and segments of China’s technology industry. Yet I still have huge blind spots when it comes to the lived experience, social pressure, cultural references, and general worldview of many Chinese people—blind spots that undoubtedly weaken my analysis of the Asian security environment. This deficiency is common in Washington, and it is getting worse. At a recent conference attended by ~200 undergraduates, I polled the room and was shocked to discover that not one was studying China. And while China once dominated IR masters programs, many of my @GeorgetownCSS students are now refocusing on Russia or Iran. I routinely attend dinners for China policy specialists in Washington where almost nobody besides me has set foot in the country in the past decade. The resulting assessments and policy recommendations are often badly miscalibrated. In my own field notes from last year, I wrote that “there’s a texture to a country that can’t be captured through policy documents or sardonic social media posts—unguarded glimpses of how a society actually feels about itself, which can only be witnessed with one’s own eyes and ears.” I still believe this is true. My advice to most American undergrads contemplating study in China: Go. Take the security risks seriously. Document your contacts, keep your ordinary digital life off any device you bring, and assume you are being monitored. Resist recruitment pitches and report suspicious approaches. Do not endanger Chinese friends or sources merely to satisfy your curiosity. Recognize that some research topics, personal circumstances, or the political calendar may still make your travel inadvisable—and if you're seeking a security clearance, you may have to explain your decision later down the line. But for most students, calculated exposure to risk is not the same thing as naïveté. In many respects, college is the best—and perhaps the last—window in which to immerse yourself in China without carrying the full professional and security liabilities that would accompany such an opportunity later in your career. The opportunity cost of going, and the scrutiny you receive from both U.S. and Chinese security services, will generally only increase as you age. So go, learn the language. Eat the food, hike the Wuyue, learn to negotiate with the waijiaobu. Make friends with princelings, dissidents, nationalists, strivers, cynics, and people who care nothing about politics. My own decision to live and study in Russia before the war was one of the best decisions of my life, and (I believe) has made me a better analyst of life inside of authoritarian systems. Go with eyes wide open. Enjoy being a stranger in an even stranger land. You'll learn so much—about things you would otherwise never know you never knew. Not all of you will enter government. But some of you might. I'm counting on it: America needs China hawks who know China.

Jackie Deal @JacquelineNDeal

3 weeks ago

Studying in China is like embedding with the Mafia. You can take precautions, but it's never safe. My latest, in @DailyCaller... dailycaller.com/2026/08/30/opi…

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"Many of them mentioned the word 'involution'—which I’d been reading about from afar since 2020—but it also seemed as if life in China had never been this good." @goldkorn returns to China after a decade away: chinafile.com/reporting-opin…

How to freak out the Chinese and American internets in one interview with Christopher Nolan: alltimehai.substack.com/p/a-chinese-po…

This video was done for ChinaFile’s new project Hǎi 海Follow us on Substack: alltimehai.substack.com

Many Chinese journalists joined Western newsrooms hoping to report with more freedom. But some have become disillusioned, as more than a dozen journalists shared anonymously with @MM_editorial. @annakook catches you up:

“The instant I stepped through its glass doors, it felt like I had been teleported back to China, not the country I knew, but one I imagine it can be.” Gorgeous essay from @yangyang_cheng as usual chinafile.com/reporting-opin…

I found many other passages in the piece to be more insightful. E.g.,👇

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57 years ago

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A Chinese podcaster pressed Christopher Nolan on whether he'd "Christianized" The Odyssey. The interview went viral — then two internets started arguing about what it meant. New from ChinaFile's Hai 海: alltimehai.substack.com/p/a-chinese-po…

"It may be hard to make money in China in 2026, but it is very pleasant to spend it." Jeremy Goldkorn returns to China after a decade away: chinafile.com/reporting-opin…

Hot pot and dumpling bistros, Pilates studios, viral massage videos: In Mexico City, young Chinese women are building businesses—and lives—on their own terms. New from Hǎi 海, ChinaFile's project on global Chinese lives: chinafile.com/reporting-opin…

China's Yunnan province grows great coffee, and it rarely leaves China. I found some in NYC. It's a sign that China's booming high-end coffee scene is starting to go global. Watch my video for Hǎi 海, a @ChinaFile project on how China lives in the world. substack.com/profile/418830…

A Shanghai bookstore was shut down by the Chinese state in 2018. Six years later, it reopened in Washington, D.C. Yangyang Cheng spent months reporting the full, complicated story of Jifeng — chinafile.com/reporting-opin…

Striking comment from leading Chinese international relations scholar Wu Xinbo: “Global governance cannot rely solely on conceptual initiatives, and if the UN headquarters one day moves from the Hudson to the Huangpu, China must prepare the necessary resources, physical space and professional talent in advance.” From @thomasdggeddes x @niubi substack.com/home/post/p-20…