BioTech Alchemist @BioTechAlchemy

@Duke0035 Prophet

$ABVX 📽️ Some Hollywood level production here.

@BioTechAlchemy Folks don’t have patients for 12 months for 5X (if everything goes well).

@alexjpitti Its 50% of my portfolio. Not sizing it any higher. Adding to $NKTR $CCCC $COGT $PALI $CRVS

$PALI no clue wtf is going on but ill keep adding the lower this goes

@seedy19tron

@kevin__mak $qure and $abvx, two european public companies sabotaging their shareholders with clinical trial updates. We really know how to fuck things up over here

$QURE A bunch has been written about today's AMT130 news by people far more scientifically credible than me, so I'll just summarize to say my opinion is that the data was directionally bearish but only mildly. I think the reaction to the news was overblown. If you gave me the press release and conference call ahead of time and asked me to guess "what does the price trade to", I'd say around $32. Lots of people have complained about the type and quality of disclosure and messaging from the company but I want to highlight something I noticed that I think has been missed. My experience this morning was that the actual press release process was entirely mishandled. Here's what I think happened: 7:05AM ET is the "typical release time" for QURE. So naturally when they setup an interview with Stat News and Bloomberg the night before, they likely communicated this "embargo time". So at 7:05AM, the pre-written articles from Stat and Bloomberg hit the newswires. Bloomberg's article was particularly poorly done, with exceptionally little detail beyond the "-44% not stat sig" datapoint. (They later "updated" their news article to be more robust). But this awful article was essentially first to hit the headlines, and obviously thousands of bots and machines are scraping Bloomberg, and trading off it. Naturally one would want to "check for more data beyond two articles", but for some reason, at 7:05AM, there was no Press Release from QURE. This was likely a mistake (either by QURE or by the wire company). In the screenshot (and link) below, you'll see the timestamp of the official wire including ALL of the data. So investors were "left in the dark" for a full 7 minutes. globenewswire.com/news-release/2… Does 7 minutes really matter? To a long term investor, certainly not. But it matters to algo traders, who leave footprints of price action, which affect sentiment, so it does matter. Also, it leaves me unsettled that they're possibly getting some of the most basic things wrong. I get their jobs are stressful and there's a lot on the line here, that's why you have to dot your i's, cross your t's, because everything matters. To be clear, I don't know for a fact who's error this was, but I'd speculate it was the company. (Here's a normal press release from the company timestamped at 7:05AM ET. There are many other examples on the site that corroborate the 7:05 ET pattern) globenewswire.com/news-release/2… Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds hold a long position in QURE. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.

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So, uhh.... $QURE is still getting approved, isn't it? 👉The 4 year data from today isn't even part of the accelerated approval data package that was submitted to the FDA. Accelerated approval submission was on 3 year data. 👉The 3 year data with newly added patients got *even better* on cUHDRS delta. 👉The accelerated approval endpoint is cUHDRS at 3 years, but the confirmatory trial endpoint will be TFC. The new 4 year data that people are freaking out about today missed stat sig on cUHDRS, but *is still stat sig on TFC*, which again, will be the actual confirmatory trial endpoint. 👉"There is no placebo group" people always ignore the low dose cohort too. Why? Patients were blinded to dose cohort, making the low dose cohort essentially a placebo cohort with a 10x lower dose. The high dose is *still stat sig superior to the low dose group* at 48 months on both endpoints versus this "pseudo placebo" group. 👉CSF NfL is totally flat after 4 years, whereas it should be up *significantly* in untreated HD patients. All of the above points will be discussed at the ADCOMM, which was already expected before today's data. The FDA refusing to approve this would sincerely surprise me. "But what about commercial viability?!" Do you even know what we are talking about here? This is Huntington's disease...You think nobody is going to want the drug because "The 4 year ~50% reduction of disease slightly missed statistical significance against the external control!" Patients will see ~50% slowing on cUHDRS (missed stat sig) and ~60% slowing on TFC (strongly stat sig) and want the drug. This part is not complicated. The only question was and is: Approval or no approval? You think the current FDA is gonna reject this? LOL, ok - let's see.

@byebyegoodguy

Hmmm 🤔

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$ABVX

@LillyGastroEU BLINK IF THERE IS A SECRET MSG HERE $ABVX

@alexjpitti yeah bootycheeks

Bare ass jiggle in fishnets on my feed. Sometimes its good to remember the things that actually matter and not $ABVX price action

This post will probably ruin at least 1 life

CMS Invests @cmsinvests

4 days ago

If you're under 59, I'm only going to say this ONCE. I don't give a F*CK if you have $1,000, $10,000, or even $100,000 in your portfolio, BIOTECH stocks are going to make people generational WEALTH this year. Here are 5 stocks with 10x potential: 1. $HIMS

28 65 1K 362K 2K

We maintain our core view that cemsi can replicate the efficacy seen with BMS’s CELMoDs, potentially with better exposure and a superior safety profile. C4’s poster was more pharmacodynamic than efficacy-focused, but biology is positive: in the first two cemsi + elranatamab patients, adding cemsi increased effector-memory CD8 T cells and markers including HLA-DR, Ki-67 and granzyme B, while the initial six-patient 75 µg cohort was cleared and C4 is now expanding 75 µg and escalating towards 100 µg. BMS’s MELT-MM efficacy remains very strong, with 13/13 responses, 12/13 stringent CRs and 10/11 MRD-negative at 10^-5, but safety provides interesting space for cemsi to compete in. At 0.6 mg mezigdomide, 3/6 patients had grade 3/4 liver-enzyme elevations alongside substantial neutropenia and thrombocytopenia, while 0.3 mg remained active without that liver signal; our view is that MELT-like depth with cleaner safety could offset BMS’s clinical-maturity advantage, with mid-2027 C4 combination data the key test. $CCCC $BMY

$ABVX UEG new maintenance data programme.ueg.eu/2026/week/deta… 34-42% overall CR in AT-IR 24-39% endoscopic remission in AT-IR 27-33% CR in 4+ AT failures or Jak failure = 9b MC, right?

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$XBI $BBC A few lessons from managing biotech portfolios through past drawdowns that might be useful right now. I’ve been feeling a lot of the same frustration I’m seeing and hearing across the space. Hopefully this offers some perspective and a little reason for optimism: 1) If you don’t understand what’s driving the market, or no longer see a credible path to recovering within your investment horizon, reduce exposure quickly. My rule of thumb in those situations is to bring long exposure to 100% or below and only hedge things that have near-term value creation potential for which the IRR is still very attractive. Correlations can change abruptly when markets become disorderly. Something that has reliably hedged your portfolio can suddenly become another source of losses. 2) When reducing exposure, start with the lowest expected forward IRRs, accounting for risk, liquidity, and time to realization. Shorten that timeline where possible. Pay attention to the portfolio you’re left with: selling your most liquid names can leave you increasingly concentrated in positions that are difficult to exit. Widening spreads and disappearing bids can make subsequent losses much harder to manage. 3) Have a valuation framework you can return to when sentiment gets overwhelming. Use conservative assumptions to identify dislocations and establish where you would be willing to add. Keep the framework consistent, but update the inputs as information changes. Before averaging down, do the work again and make sure the prospective return still justifies the risk. 4) When correlations across names rise toward 1 and very different businesses start trading together, it can indicate indiscriminate or forced selling. Prices can fall well below what fundamentals appear to justify. That doesn’t tell you where the bottom is, or how soon buyers will return. If you have buying power, this can be a reasonable time to consider monetizing some profitable hedges and gradually redeploying, while being deliberate about the protection you’re giving up. Leave yourself room for things to get worse. The rebound can also arrive before you feel ready. 5) Be honest about your own pain tolerance. A pod with strict drawdown limits and someone who forgot they had a brokerage account are operating under very different constraints. Most of us fall somewhere between them. Seeing more people exhausted and giving up may tell you something about sentiment, but it doesn’t tell you how much selling remains. Make sure you can live with your positioning if the next leg is lower. 6) The hardest part is often managing your own mental state, especially when other people have trusted you with their money. That responsibility weighs heavily during periods like this. Remember that navigating difficult markets is part of what they trusted you to do. Stay grounded in your process, keep looking for opportunities, and spend time with friends and family when you step away. It’s difficult to make good decisions when you’re exhausted and carrying everything alone. 7) These periods can create exceptional opportunities, but the payoff may take longer than you expect. Investors with shorter horizons can be forced to sell at prices that become attractive for someone able to wait. In biotech, a lower share price can also change the financing math. If the company still needs to raise money, greater dilution can eat into the apparent upside. This compounds with rising rates and losses across the sector that may constrain capital availability. Keep revisiting cash runway, financing needs, clinical thesis, and probability to standalone cashflows. Be clear about what would invalidate your thesis and be willing to exit if it breaks. Add gradually where the opportunity holds up under conservative assumptions. A position being down significantly is no reason, by itself, to keep owning it. 8) Give yourself some room to be human. Even a sound investment process can produce painful setbacks. Learn from the experience, but be careful about overhauling your approach in response to events you couldn’t reasonably predict. A difficult market doesn’t mean you suddenly need to become a macro trader. Understand how the broader environment affects your holdings, and be honest about where you have an edge. The goal is to keep improving a repeatable process that can compound capital over time which requires both adapting when the facts change and having the discipline to stick with sound decisions through uncomfortable periods.