it’s honestly insane how much of the modern tech tree has been unlocked because of a single guy
thanks to Elon we have
- online payments
- mass market electric cars
- batteries and grid-scale energy storage
- self driving cars and robotaxis
- humanoid robots
- advanced brain computer interfaces
- next generation tunneling
- reusable rockets
-global satellite internet
- basically the modern space industry
- Moon and Mars transportation
- orbital compute and space data centers
- frontier AI
- gigantic AI supercomputers
- physical world AI
and the wildest part is that these branches are now starting to merge
there is a very real chance that this one guy ends up being the reason humanity reaches Kardashev II
genuinely the man of the millennium
Wrong advice for junior developer: look at the AI generated code, since you need to mature as a programmer. Right advice: save time with AI coding and write by hand "get-better" programs: interpreters, games, ray tracers, ...
decided this is the week
gave astra my email and paypal and told it to analyze the past few years of business and set up a plan to automate the entire thing so i can travel
Reminder: AI capabilities are advancing rapidly AND we might be in the midst of a huge capex financial bubble...
AI adoption (= revenues, productivity) can lag capabilities by years. Depreciation on GPUs is of order years (4? 6?) so a lag like this is enough to DESTROY leveraged (debt-fueled) bets 🤔
Remember, HUMANS ARE IN THE LOOP. They can delay adoption or power supplies to DCs or create regulatory constraints. The sensitivity timescale for LEVERAGED BETS is smaller than the delays humans can impose on AI adoption/scaling.
Even if humans don't DELIBERATELY delay productive use of AI, human leaders and organizations may STILL TAKE YEARS to figure out how to effectively use AI in the real economy ...
BOTH THINGS CAN BE TRUE AT THE SAME TIME:
1. AI capabilities are real and advancing rapidly
2. It will take longer than singularity or fast-takeoff people think for AI to affect real productivity in the economy, or generate $trillion revenues for AI labs (although capex
I told 200 AI villagers the bread was about to run out. It wasn't. Within 18 hours, 156 of them believed it, and they emptied the bakery three days in a row. Every choice is made by an AI (Jev, by TypeSafe). They all panicked lol.
On day 3 the truth turned up: a flour cart at the bakery and a villager who'd seen the mill. It won in the end, with 172 of 200 knowing it was false by day 5.
But the truth took more than two days to reach as many people as the lie reached in 18 hours, and the bakery kept selling out after it arrived.
there are entire professions and businesses owned by late boomers and genXers who still think AI is an overhyped Google
there’s millions to be made by just showing up, demoing them how to integrate AI in their work and charging them as “AI consultant” or something
i showed my dad how to use codex and claude code for his work.
he just called me crying tears of joy because he’d done in 5 minutes what had taken one of his employees an entire month.
here is an overview of the 4 most advanced efficient architectures: Deepseek V4.1 Flash, MiMo V3, Qwen 3.8 Next Flash and GLM 5.3 Flash
Deepseek and MiMo are quite similar, they both use YOCO - only the first part of the network is active during prefill to build the KV cache representation - no linear attention, and token level indexer
Qwen and GLM both use a more standard interleaving 3:1 (like Kimi K3 as well) between sparse attention and linear attention (GDN vs KDA)
both deepseek and qwen use Engram, they all use a gate or sink except GLM 5.3 Flash, they also all use no or partial RoPE on the full/sparse attention layers
they also all have some sophisticated residual network, either mHC (simplified or not) or gated residual and they are all trained using Muon
visualization by opus 5.5 and me :)
there are many many people who studied physics and came to the conclusion that working on machine learning would probably create more scientific progress than studying physics including many of the original chatgpt crew like john schulman, liam fedus, amodei & jared kaplan at ant
"People aren't ready, this is gonna change everything"
You know what people weren't ready for? Fucking mammoths. Tigers eating them. Monkeys ripping their arms off. The black plague. The ice age. Smallpox. Vikings pulling up on the beach. Drinking water that gives you diarrhea until you die. Getting a scratch and losing your whole leg. The Mongols. The Spanish Inquisition.
One volcano can send us back to the dark ages and these safety guys are gonna be shocked. Oh the robots didn't kill us? It was a volcano? Imagine their disappointment as the hot ash rains down on them.
A solar flare is gonna explode your phone in your pocket your legs are gonna be covered in battery acid and your bank account will stop working. You're afraid of a computer program doing math?
"Things are moving too fast" homie you live on a rock that periodically deletes everything. You are one the most luckiest entities in a 100 light year radius living during a golden era. Cheer up.
My ancestors crossed an ocean in a wooden box because they ran out of fucking potatoes.
"The social disruption will be enormous!"
Nigga World War 2? World War 2? Hop in the people carrier we're landing on the beach.
Are these people out of their fucking minds? Do they not know what we've survived already?
A couple decades of air conditioning and people suddenly think oh this is the natural condition of mankind. No. We used to have eight kids because seven didn't make it. You're gonna be fine. Man the fuck up.
Accelerate.
AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023.
That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity.
The frontier of mathematics will soon reach far beyond the subset that human minds discover.
Working memory of ~10 is a very strong constraint on ape brains! 🧠🐒
youtu.be/q4Uao6leMyw?si…
Compression is all you need: Modeling mathematics
Abstract: The mathematics humans discover and value (“human math”) is a vanishingly small subset of all valid deductions (“formal math”). I’ll argue that human math is distinguished by its compressibility through hierarchically nested definitions and theorems, like a polynomial-growth space rather than the exponential-growth space one might expect when proofs are viewed as strings of symbols. The argument combines toy monoid models with an empirical analysis of MathLib, a large Lean library of formalized mathematics we treat as a proxy for human math. I’ll close with how compression itself can serve as a measure of mathematical interest, giving agents a sense of direction toward where human math lives.
> We might have penalized response length too much (or something) in RL, as it still gives up on hard tasks (that it can do!) too early
For the record, here is Elon's solution to this problem. Grok 4.7 xhigh, Grok Build.
Godspeed, you glorious bastard… Per aspera ad Astra!
@farzyness Grok 4.7 needs a few more days to cook.
We might have penalized response length too much (or something) in RL, as it still gives up on hard tasks (that it can do!) too early and isn’t yet sufficiently rigorous in checking its work.
Mathematician Terence Tao:
"we have to slow down AI. the pace is insane, and there's no reason to be this fast — no reason at all"
It's amazing how willing we are to change everything without any idea what happens afterward
These are extremely nonlinear dynamics
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